The FBI released its crime report for 2022, and I thought it instructive for us to examine homicide numbers. Homicides from 1985–2022. Now it is, or should be, obvious that these are counted homicides. Homicides that are not counted are not on the chart. Do not forget that
Necessary correction from Greg Kent, over at the blog:
Briggs, when you created your graph from the FBI CDE’s Expanded Homicide data, you should have notice a disclaimer: “2021 Expanded Homicide Data includes fewer homicides due to an overall decrease in participation from agencies that are not yet reporting via NIBRS.” It turns out the FBI data source changed right in the midst of the BLM effect. The new data source significantly understates the nationwide estimates for 2021 and after in the Expanded Homicide data. The 2021 data covered only about 65% of the population and the 2022 data bout 77% of the population, down from 90%+ in 2020. Therefore, the “Expanded homicide” data you pulled from the Crime Data Explorer is significantly understated in 2021 and 2022. A more accurate nationwide estimate is available via the “NIBRS Estimate” page at https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/LATEST/webapp/#/pages/explorer/crime/nibrs-estimates. The complete data shows 23061 and 21593 murder offenses in 2021 and 2022, respectively, rather than the 16413 and 19200 numbers from the incomplete data source. The difference between the data sources for 2021 has been significant in the political debate about the impact of the 2020 BLM protests. The FBI’s “Expanded Data” (which is the incomplete data source that your plot used) appears to show 2020 as a one time bump that 13% fell back to normal levels in 2021. Unfortunately, the apparent drop in murders in 2021 was purely an artifact of the incomplete dataset. Reality was otherwise. The FBI’s complete data shows that murder offenses increased in 2021 by 22% on top of the 29% increase that occurred in 2020. This result is intuitive. After all, there was a nationwide lockdown in the spring of 2020 and the BLM protests didn’t start until the middle of the year. There was a slight 6% decrease in murders in 2022, as the FBI’s press release reports, but that is rather small and is far from recovering from the huge increases the previous two years. Overall, the FBI’s complete data shows that the rise in murders since the 2020 police pullback has persisted. The three year average for black murder victims has increased 56% (from 7781 for 2017-19 and 12138 for 2020-22), which shows that black lives have not faired very well in this BLM era. It is regrettable that the FBI’s data change has made this reality hard to see. Apparently even for eminent statisticians.
Great exposition of the current state of crime in America.
But that final throw-away line is sort of a downer:
"There does not seem to be any acceptable solution, either."
Potential solutions abound! Think positive!
If it's acceptable to propose "reparation" payments to Americans with a drop of African blood in their veins, then it's also acceptable to propose other solutions for dealing with the same population. Remember Liberia! Lots of land in Africa just waiting for industrious, oppressed Africans to build Wakanda!
On a related note, essays comparing America statistics (crime, life expectancy, health, income inequality, etc) to European, or Asian countries--casting America in an unfavorable light--always ignore demographic realities. Extract blacks from life expectancy stats, or health stats, or crime stats, and America is on a par with other advanced countries. And, conversely, American blacks are about the same as their brethren in Africa. The murder rate in Nigeria is 21/100,000 about the same as black America.
"Remember Liberia" could be taken another way: it was sufficient to change the demographics of Liberia, but inconsequential in changing the demographics of America. Such a project would be even more daunting now. Forcibly relocating 45 million people to another continent would be logistically daunting. With an average passenger capacity of about 200 and roughly 1000 jets in the American Airlines fleet running at one flight per day, it would take about 200 days to relocate the entire population, at a cost of $22B assuming $500/free ticket.
Hm. So doable after all, perhaps. And quite possibly much cheaper than dem programs (trillions of dollars over the last generations) or incarcerating the criminal element ($80B/year).
Remember Liberia is not a slogan celebrating the success of the project. It's a slogan to remember that there was a project, that was not implemented well.
It could be done much better than it was last time.
Why fly them?
Cruise ships can carry about 6,000 people, with lots of room for cargo.
With the White Supremacist, systemic racist hell-hole of America that these poor people have to live in, they'll surely jump at the chance to do Liberia right, and recreate Wakanda.
A conversation I've had with left-leaning Europeans:
Them: "America is crazy, all that violence, they should not cling to their guns."
Me: "In Switzerland they all keep assault rifles at home."
Them: "That is different, they are trained and regulated."
Me: "Most American firearms owners are also trained, and it's not as easy to buy a weapon as you think. In fact, the more regulated states have higher murder rates. There's huge variation across regions. If you disaggregate areas with largely European-descended populations and predominantly African-descended populations, the homicide rates diverge sharply. The former are comparable to Western Europe, despite being much more heavily armed than Europeans, while the latter are comparable to West Africa. So I don't think the availability of firearms is necessarily the primary factor."
You can document all the facts in the world and half the people would say, "I already knew that" and half of the people would call you racist for expounding on reality. Heather MacDonald and Charles Murray have written several books and articles documenting the criminality of blacks in the inner city. Ben Reitman, a black criminologist wrote BLACKICIDE, a book that explains why so many inner city crimes are never solved.
Until people are wise enough and logical enough to discuss racial differences, brains, and traits, claims of racism will dominate Amerika until the WEF and the UN take over.
The Crime rate in this country is the direct result and byproduct of the failed leadership of the "Potted Plant" we have for a President and the people behind him!! Political corruption on both sides of politics has finally caught up to the Good Ole USA!! At this rate, enjoy what is left because it is all downhill from here if things don't change, and I do not see that happening anytime soon!!
I agree, we’re diving head first into the downward spiral. It’s my belief that the globalist bankers are behind all of this here in America and other countries as well. Our politicians are mere pawns who answer to their puppet masters. The open southern border in America was planned years in advance by the real people in power. No matter what side of the political aisle you are on. These corrupt politicians don’t have our best interests at heart. Just my lay opinion
Political sides love any problem. So one can argue against while the other can argue for it. So basically rendering both being uninterested in solving the problem.
Here’s my modest request: do a little projection on the trajectory of the racial composition of the US and let me know, given the data above, what the future looks like.
Black and white children are not taught that the white race actually comprised a smaller percentage of slave owners in the United States than free blacks— about 28% of free blacks owned black slaves compared to roughly 1.4% of white owners of black slaves (1860 US Census)
Can't remember the year, but about 2017
Black Lives DO Matter - Consider This...
On The Net 6-18-17
What would happen if all Blacks suddenly left America…which would be 13.3% of our total population?
The prison population would go down by 73%,
There would be 63% less gang members,
Obesity percentage would drop 21%,
Average IQ would go up 10.4 points, putting us 3rd in the world tied with Japan,
Average SAT scores would go up almost 100 points,
Average ACT scores would go up 5.5 points.
AIDS & HIV would go down by 65%,
Chlamydia cases would go down 54%,
Gonorrhea would go down 69%,
Syphilis would go down 58%.
The average income for Americans would go up over $20,000 a year,
Amount of people in poverty would drop 34%,
Homelessness would go down 57%,
Welfare recipients would go down by 42%,
And Democrats Would Lose 76% Of Their Voting Base.
Necessary correction from Greg Kent, over at the blog:
Briggs, when you created your graph from the FBI CDE’s Expanded Homicide data, you should have notice a disclaimer: “2021 Expanded Homicide Data includes fewer homicides due to an overall decrease in participation from agencies that are not yet reporting via NIBRS.” It turns out the FBI data source changed right in the midst of the BLM effect. The new data source significantly understates the nationwide estimates for 2021 and after in the Expanded Homicide data. The 2021 data covered only about 65% of the population and the 2022 data bout 77% of the population, down from 90%+ in 2020. Therefore, the “Expanded homicide” data you pulled from the Crime Data Explorer is significantly understated in 2021 and 2022. A more accurate nationwide estimate is available via the “NIBRS Estimate” page at https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/LATEST/webapp/#/pages/explorer/crime/nibrs-estimates. The complete data shows 23061 and 21593 murder offenses in 2021 and 2022, respectively, rather than the 16413 and 19200 numbers from the incomplete data source. The difference between the data sources for 2021 has been significant in the political debate about the impact of the 2020 BLM protests. The FBI’s “Expanded Data” (which is the incomplete data source that your plot used) appears to show 2020 as a one time bump that 13% fell back to normal levels in 2021. Unfortunately, the apparent drop in murders in 2021 was purely an artifact of the incomplete dataset. Reality was otherwise. The FBI’s complete data shows that murder offenses increased in 2021 by 22% on top of the 29% increase that occurred in 2020. This result is intuitive. After all, there was a nationwide lockdown in the spring of 2020 and the BLM protests didn’t start until the middle of the year. There was a slight 6% decrease in murders in 2022, as the FBI’s press release reports, but that is rather small and is far from recovering from the huge increases the previous two years. Overall, the FBI’s complete data shows that the rise in murders since the 2020 police pullback has persisted. The three year average for black murder victims has increased 56% (from 7781 for 2017-19 and 12138 for 2020-22), which shows that black lives have not faired very well in this BLM era. It is regrettable that the FBI’s data change has made this reality hard to see. Apparently even for eminent statisticians.
https://www.wmbriggs.com/post/49120/#comment-217077
Great exposition of the current state of crime in America.
But that final throw-away line is sort of a downer:
"There does not seem to be any acceptable solution, either."
Potential solutions abound! Think positive!
If it's acceptable to propose "reparation" payments to Americans with a drop of African blood in their veins, then it's also acceptable to propose other solutions for dealing with the same population. Remember Liberia! Lots of land in Africa just waiting for industrious, oppressed Africans to build Wakanda!
On a related note, essays comparing America statistics (crime, life expectancy, health, income inequality, etc) to European, or Asian countries--casting America in an unfavorable light--always ignore demographic realities. Extract blacks from life expectancy stats, or health stats, or crime stats, and America is on a par with other advanced countries. And, conversely, American blacks are about the same as their brethren in Africa. The murder rate in Nigeria is 21/100,000 about the same as black America.
"Remember Liberia" could be taken another way: it was sufficient to change the demographics of Liberia, but inconsequential in changing the demographics of America. Such a project would be even more daunting now. Forcibly relocating 45 million people to another continent would be logistically daunting. With an average passenger capacity of about 200 and roughly 1000 jets in the American Airlines fleet running at one flight per day, it would take about 200 days to relocate the entire population, at a cost of $22B assuming $500/free ticket.
Hm. So doable after all, perhaps. And quite possibly much cheaper than dem programs (trillions of dollars over the last generations) or incarcerating the criminal element ($80B/year).
Remember Liberia is not a slogan celebrating the success of the project. It's a slogan to remember that there was a project, that was not implemented well.
It could be done much better than it was last time.
Why fly them?
Cruise ships can carry about 6,000 people, with lots of room for cargo.
With the White Supremacist, systemic racist hell-hole of America that these poor people have to live in, they'll surely jump at the chance to do Liberia right, and recreate Wakanda.
Shoot, they may even pay for the privilege!
I don't know how many people have the fortitude to view TND as acceptable!
A conversation I've had with left-leaning Europeans:
Them: "America is crazy, all that violence, they should not cling to their guns."
Me: "In Switzerland they all keep assault rifles at home."
Them: "That is different, they are trained and regulated."
Me: "Most American firearms owners are also trained, and it's not as easy to buy a weapon as you think. In fact, the more regulated states have higher murder rates. There's huge variation across regions. If you disaggregate areas with largely European-descended populations and predominantly African-descended populations, the homicide rates diverge sharply. The former are comparable to Western Europe, despite being much more heavily armed than Europeans, while the latter are comparable to West Africa. So I don't think the availability of firearms is necessarily the primary factor."
Them: "That's racist."
You can document all the facts in the world and half the people would say, "I already knew that" and half of the people would call you racist for expounding on reality. Heather MacDonald and Charles Murray have written several books and articles documenting the criminality of blacks in the inner city. Ben Reitman, a black criminologist wrote BLACKICIDE, a book that explains why so many inner city crimes are never solved.
Until people are wise enough and logical enough to discuss racial differences, brains, and traits, claims of racism will dominate Amerika until the WEF and the UN take over.
We all know why the Feds class "Latines" a White. I bet they are over half of the "White" homicide rates.
The Crime rate in this country is the direct result and byproduct of the failed leadership of the "Potted Plant" we have for a President and the people behind him!! Political corruption on both sides of politics has finally caught up to the Good Ole USA!! At this rate, enjoy what is left because it is all downhill from here if things don't change, and I do not see that happening anytime soon!!
I agree, we’re diving head first into the downward spiral. It’s my belief that the globalist bankers are behind all of this here in America and other countries as well. Our politicians are mere pawns who answer to their puppet masters. The open southern border in America was planned years in advance by the real people in power. No matter what side of the political aisle you are on. These corrupt politicians don’t have our best interests at heart. Just my lay opinion
Political sides love any problem. So one can argue against while the other can argue for it. So basically rendering both being uninterested in solving the problem.
I concur
Here’s my modest request: do a little projection on the trajectory of the racial composition of the US and let me know, given the data above, what the future looks like.
Completely unrelated: https://bnn.network/politics/courts-law/south-africa-tops-african-crime-index/
OMG! Sensible analysis!
Is it a race issue or a class (e.g. poverty) issue? And what was it like before the War on Poverty?
It's not class.
They never did and never will, they are greedy, selfish, Godless people, and idolize money and power!
Black and white children are not taught that the white race actually comprised a smaller percentage of slave owners in the United States than free blacks— about 28% of free blacks owned black slaves compared to roughly 1.4% of white owners of black slaves (1860 US Census)
Can't remember the year, but about 2017
Black Lives DO Matter - Consider This...
On The Net 6-18-17
What would happen if all Blacks suddenly left America…which would be 13.3% of our total population?
The prison population would go down by 73%,
There would be 63% less gang members,
Obesity percentage would drop 21%,
Average IQ would go up 10.4 points, putting us 3rd in the world tied with Japan,
Average SAT scores would go up almost 100 points,
Average ACT scores would go up 5.5 points.
AIDS & HIV would go down by 65%,
Chlamydia cases would go down 54%,
Gonorrhea would go down 69%,
Syphilis would go down 58%.
The average income for Americans would go up over $20,000 a year,
Amount of people in poverty would drop 34%,
Homelessness would go down 57%,
Welfare recipients would go down by 42%,
And Democrats Would Lose 76% Of Their Voting Base.
Rense
Stop complaining we’re behind and get on the scoreboard, there’s no awards for Bottom Bitch.
HAMAS just explained per capita.
Y’all make this too hard