As you said, circumstance matters. The location of the shooting is going to determine what weapon you have on hand. That's where the pistol shines as an everyday carry. The shotgun incidents likely all happened in the home, whereas pistol incidents could happen anywhere. This could be related to your deterrence statement, but you're more likely to get yourself arrested walking around with a long gun than with a holstered pistol.
As you point out, the type of bullet makes a huge difference. A 22 hollow point makes a bigger mess that a 9mm FMJ. I think the main take away here is that you are much more likely to fire a lot of practice rounds of cheap 22 rather than expensive 45, 9mm etc. You are much more likely to be able to hold and steady a 22 than a 45, or 357 unless your name is Eastwood or Wayne. You will be able to retain or return to target a lot quicker with a 22 than with any other gun. You can carry a 22LR much more comfortably than any of the others, a 9mm or larger is a real nuisance for 90% of the time unless you walk around like today's cops and old time gunslingers with it tied to your leg.
Nice job illustrating the points about models, data, and prudent skepticism.
Everyone “knows” about stopping power. Especially those equipped with internet access. Few think about the implicit priors behind stopping a miscreant. Good to make those points explicit.
I’m no data scientist. I was never a sergeant, but did make private a couple of times before wising up and learning listen carefully to sergeants. I do know some things about killing efficiently. Interrupting the flow of blood and oxygen to the brain work well. Difficult to achieve in practice because of unpredictable mitigation (bone structure, movement, armor, etc). Theory informs practice for some. Wise practitioners close the loop to allow observed results to influence theory.
Are any climate “scientists” also successfully hunters? Working men want to know.
I carry a .38 snubnose and have a Mossberg 500 for home defense. Genuinely surprised at the .38 special's performance here. I am very surprised it beat .45 ACP! I guess the bit about .22 LR causing more pain could be accurate.
As for .22s, the highest number of homicides are committed by them. Why are they so deadly? As William notes, the bullet doesn't necessarily penetrate to the point that it goes through the attacker. (Well, no ammo should, but that's another problem.) I might add that .22s are usually used close-up.
I can now justify the Diablo 12 GA double barrel 6” pistol I bought (black powder muzzle loader so legal). Time to get the holster too it seems. I’ll be fine with 1-2 assailants at close range.
"It depends".... is my favorite statement on many subjects. This one is no exception. I have a CC license but typically don't. Lately though... I've been wondering if I should. The 9mm Beretta 92 I have is a great handgun, but a bit too large to carry. Pondering which handgun for me would be best, I settled on an Sig P365 (accurate, reliable and compact -even pocket carry). Then it became a question of 9mm or .380 ACP. Most reviews state that "a man ought to carry a 9" and that the .380 "was a girls gun". But reviewers also say: 1-the .380 is more enjoyable to shoot, 2-more accurate with less snappiness to be concerned with in a high stress situation, and 3-able to put more slugs on target in less time.
I chose the P365 in .380 ACP. Haven't picked it up yet, but given my enjoyment of shooting, & penchant for accuracy -I'm sure we'll get along fine. And if God Forbid I ever have to use it in self defense I'll be confident -having enjoyed much target practice... And that, knowing what I know from hunting and competitive shooting, is as good as gold.
(ps. home defense, 20 gauge shotgun with loads in order of: bird shot, bird shot, buck & buck)
There must be something going on here that is not actually related to the "stopping power" of different types of ammunition. Maybe number of incidents varies with popularity of ammunition. Plus, number of rounds fired probably varies with type of incident, who's firing, and location of incident.
For example, 9mm is far and away the most popular ammo, and it most likely constitutes the most-fired round, as it is widely used by police, who (I think) are most likely to fire rounds in an incident. And it sure seems that the police tend to dump their entire magazine when they are in a live shooting situation. Though the bad guy might have dropped or stopped with the first shot, a cop tends to fire another 14 or 15 rounds, at the same time 2 or 3 of their buddies are doing the same thing. So, that incident would show up in the "stopping power statistics" as "60 rounds fired to stop one attacker," even though he stopped at the first hit.
Good example linked below. Likely the first 9mm to the chest would have stopped him, but the cop dumped 12 rounds into him:
Guess what, Sarge! I have a shotgun! I think it’s a 20 gauge. I’ve never shot it. I got it back for Y2K. Bc it makes a nice scary noise when you cock it.
Most firearms incidents are resolved by simply producing a weapon, most goblins are rational actors and do not wish to get shot, by anything. However against a determined attacker, you need to physically incapacitate the attacker. This requires reducing blood pressure to cause unconsciousness or disrupting the central nervous system. Both favor penetration sufficient to reach major organs over big but shallow holes.
Well, my father always said a handgun is only useful to give you time to get to your shotgun, so you cut out the middle man, well done!
As you said, circumstance matters. The location of the shooting is going to determine what weapon you have on hand. That's where the pistol shines as an everyday carry. The shotgun incidents likely all happened in the home, whereas pistol incidents could happen anywhere. This could be related to your deterrence statement, but you're more likely to get yourself arrested walking around with a long gun than with a holstered pistol.
As you point out, the type of bullet makes a huge difference. A 22 hollow point makes a bigger mess that a 9mm FMJ. I think the main take away here is that you are much more likely to fire a lot of practice rounds of cheap 22 rather than expensive 45, 9mm etc. You are much more likely to be able to hold and steady a 22 than a 45, or 357 unless your name is Eastwood or Wayne. You will be able to retain or return to target a lot quicker with a 22 than with any other gun. You can carry a 22LR much more comfortably than any of the others, a 9mm or larger is a real nuisance for 90% of the time unless you walk around like today's cops and old time gunslingers with it tied to your leg.
This is actually very important data.
Briggs,
Nice job illustrating the points about models, data, and prudent skepticism.
Everyone “knows” about stopping power. Especially those equipped with internet access. Few think about the implicit priors behind stopping a miscreant. Good to make those points explicit.
I’m no data scientist. I was never a sergeant, but did make private a couple of times before wising up and learning listen carefully to sergeants. I do know some things about killing efficiently. Interrupting the flow of blood and oxygen to the brain work well. Difficult to achieve in practice because of unpredictable mitigation (bone structure, movement, armor, etc). Theory informs practice for some. Wise practitioners close the loop to allow observed results to influence theory.
Are any climate “scientists” also successfully hunters? Working men want to know.
I carry a .38 snubnose and have a Mossberg 500 for home defense. Genuinely surprised at the .38 special's performance here. I am very surprised it beat .45 ACP! I guess the bit about .22 LR causing more pain could be accurate.
A friend of mine talks about the comments his grandfather gave him...
"That won't stop anyone... " pointing at the rinky dink 22 revolver in his pocket...
"Son... He said. That is a nose gun... " Proceeding to mimic putting the gun up the nose of the offending individual.
This is great stuff! It inspired me to write a three-stage article:
https://rayhorvaththesource.substack.com/p/what-about-2nd-amendment-options
As for .22s, the highest number of homicides are committed by them. Why are they so deadly? As William notes, the bullet doesn't necessarily penetrate to the point that it goes through the attacker. (Well, no ammo should, but that's another problem.) I might add that .22s are usually used close-up.
Stevens trench broom by my headboard, with #4 buck. Don't want to scare the neighbors too awful badly...
I can now justify the Diablo 12 GA double barrel 6” pistol I bought (black powder muzzle loader so legal). Time to get the holster too it seems. I’ll be fine with 1-2 assailants at close range.
After that .... Bluff? 🤣
"It depends".... is my favorite statement on many subjects. This one is no exception. I have a CC license but typically don't. Lately though... I've been wondering if I should. The 9mm Beretta 92 I have is a great handgun, but a bit too large to carry. Pondering which handgun for me would be best, I settled on an Sig P365 (accurate, reliable and compact -even pocket carry). Then it became a question of 9mm or .380 ACP. Most reviews state that "a man ought to carry a 9" and that the .380 "was a girls gun". But reviewers also say: 1-the .380 is more enjoyable to shoot, 2-more accurate with less snappiness to be concerned with in a high stress situation, and 3-able to put more slugs on target in less time.
I chose the P365 in .380 ACP. Haven't picked it up yet, but given my enjoyment of shooting, & penchant for accuracy -I'm sure we'll get along fine. And if God Forbid I ever have to use it in self defense I'll be confident -having enjoyed much target practice... And that, knowing what I know from hunting and competitive shooting, is as good as gold.
(ps. home defense, 20 gauge shotgun with loads in order of: bird shot, bird shot, buck & buck)
There must be something going on here that is not actually related to the "stopping power" of different types of ammunition. Maybe number of incidents varies with popularity of ammunition. Plus, number of rounds fired probably varies with type of incident, who's firing, and location of incident.
For example, 9mm is far and away the most popular ammo, and it most likely constitutes the most-fired round, as it is widely used by police, who (I think) are most likely to fire rounds in an incident. And it sure seems that the police tend to dump their entire magazine when they are in a live shooting situation. Though the bad guy might have dropped or stopped with the first shot, a cop tends to fire another 14 or 15 rounds, at the same time 2 or 3 of their buddies are doing the same thing. So, that incident would show up in the "stopping power statistics" as "60 rounds fired to stop one attacker," even though he stopped at the first hit.
Good example linked below. Likely the first 9mm to the chest would have stopped him, but the cop dumped 12 rounds into him:
https://www.reddit.com/r/JoeRogan/comments/tzge59/cop_mag_dumps_all_12_rounds_of_his_clip_into_the/
All excellent points.
It would take experience of shooting people to not do a mag dump until having done it repeatedly.
This is just human nature.
Virgin gun fight = mag dump.
It might even then take discipline and nerves of steel, OR worry that the battle continues and you don’t want to run out of ammo.
Also after some bad experiences the police are trained to fire until threat eliminated.
Interesting. But the shotgun is ineffective in penetrating the body armor of the Chinese armed forces when they come for us. Chinese, I wrote...
The humble and relatively cheap AR is very good against body armor, according to videos I've seen. Hmm...why does our government demonize that weapon?
Wait until you see some of the innovative slugs they have now. Steel barbells, even.
True dat
I eagerly await advertisements touting the "noisy slide rack/pump action" as an asset.
Guess what, Sarge! I have a shotgun! I think it’s a 20 gauge. I’ve never shot it. I got it back for Y2K. Bc it makes a nice scary noise when you cock it.
I’m for good guys with guns.
Were you going to shoot the computers with it?
No, silly. I was going to shoot the rioters. They predicted riots.
The article inspired my article for today:
https://rayhorvaththesource.substack.com/p/gunning-for-success
Most firearms incidents are resolved by simply producing a weapon, most goblins are rational actors and do not wish to get shot, by anything. However against a determined attacker, you need to physically incapacitate the attacker. This requires reducing blood pressure to cause unconsciousness or disrupting the central nervous system. Both favor penetration sufficient to reach major organs over big but shallow holes.