47 Comments

I really wish Putin was some kind of slow-acting super-genius. If one follows the few English speaking dissident writers (specifically Rolo Slavsky and Edward Slavsquat), though, this is clearly not the case... Additionally, the questions posed by Russian dissident Igor Strelkov about the Not-War are unanswerable for those pushing this kind of Russia-wins hopium: https://edwardslavsquat.substack.com/p/39-questions-about-the-war-in-ukraine

My personal take is that there's a lot of evidence pointing to Putin being a puppet of the Rothschild central bank owners and the whole war is fake (although the dead bodies are real) to fulfill various globohomo objectives:

https://neofeudalreview.substack.com/p/how-real-is-the-russiaukraine-war

Expand full comment
Jul 14, 2023Liked by William M Briggs

Reading guys like Rolo suggests the Putin Derangement Syndrome is just as prevalent in the West as the Trump one.

Expand full comment

There have been a lot of negative predictions over the past year, and I have read a lot of them from both of the writers you mention. I don't doubt they are correct about a great many things and have a more direct window into what is happening that I do. Nevertheless, the fact remains that the Russian lines remain unbroken, that the Russian Army still controls a fifth of Ukraine, and that no one in NATO has the resources to change things short of direct intervention, and probably not even with that. There is no sign that Russia's economy is in trouble, that the war is unpopular, or that Putin's power is insecure. All the same forces working against him have been doing so for 23 years, during which time he has outlasted innumerable rivals. Even if he were somehow to fall, it would only be because he wasn't prosecuting the war hard enough.

I am deeply saddened that this bloodbath continues, and I hope that it comes to a final conclusion soon so that whatever repercussions to be felt can be visited on those most directly responsible.

Expand full comment

Russia doesn't have the demographics to fight a World War 1-style war. It's fertility rate is well below replacement, I think it's at 1.7. The dollar/ruble exchange rate is showing increasing Russian weakness, and if one believes the Prigozhin uprising details, the Russian military mostly stood aside as Wagner marched on Moscow before Prigozhin chickened out. Slavsky thinks there will likely be a negotiated settlement which will be very bad for Russia before the end of the year. We will see...

Personally, I think this conflict will continue for years and years, either as a perpetual hot conflict or with breaks in between like Minsk 1 and 2. Globohomo always needs their forever war to grift off the American taxpayer, and Afghanistan lasted 20 years...

Expand full comment

The dollar/ruble exchange rate is inconsequential for Russia now. They have made themselves largely into an autarky and the nations they trade with are not dollar or euro based.

And no one is prepared for a WWI style conflict (especially the west) with perhaps the exception of China. Russia can keep this thing going for years if they have to. And as you can see if you follow anyone who has actually spent time in Russia over the past year the economy is strong and the war is barely noticeable (not that the people aren't aware of it, just that it's not affecting daily life).

And don't believe the narratives around the Prigozhin "uprising". No one outside a small circle really know what went on, and the Russian army stood down because Putin told them to. Word is the one general who ordered the helicopters to shadow the convoy (the group that was shot down) acted outside of orders.

You might be correct that the west would keep this war going forever if they could. The problem is they don't have the manufacturing base and that's not something you can just throw money at and expect factories and expertise to simply grow. This will go on for as long as Putin and Russia wish it to. They could crush Ukraine anytime they want. But they don't want. They don't see the bulk of Ukrainians as their enemies: they see the country as hijacked by a small cabal of neo-Nazis and oligarchs backed by the west who have greatly abused the average citizen and led to the destruction of their country. Russia wants long-term stability with Ukraine and they are executing the SMO with that in mind. You might be amazed at how many Ukrainians, even in the west, are disgusted with their leadership and at this point might actually welcome the stability Russia could provide. Because believe me, if rump Ukraine is owned by BlackRock they will do about as well as Zimbabwe.

Expand full comment

People mention the birth rate statistic a lot, but I don’t think it’s especially immediately relevant. Unless the conflict lasts into the next generation, it wouldn’t even matter if Russia was facing an enemy with a 6.0 birthdate. They are not currently running out of soldiers, and anyone they might go to war with in the future either has the same birth rate or is Africa. Perhaps in the long term Thai is a problem, but not for the war. The ruble is in the state one would expect of an export economy.

I don’t know what happened with Prigozhin and I don’t think anyone else (including Prigozhin) knows either. I know that Wagner is done in Ukraine and that the vast majority of their personnel joined the regular army, so I don’t see any evidence of anyone taking the overthrow attempt seriously.

I do not see how Russia is in a position to come out on the bad end of a negotiated settlement. The accounts you mention frequently allude to stabs in the back by oligarchs and internal traitors. Perhaps something like that will happen, but I should point out again that 23 year on Putin is popular, has managed the oligarchs thus far, and if you they have some big scheme they are all going to execute, they are taking their sweet time while Putin builds the most experienced and formidable army in Europe, now with no serious internal rivals. But as I said, they are closer to the scene than I am. They have made their predictions and I mine; we will have to see how things unfold.

Expand full comment

> "Putin is popular, has managed the oligarchs thus far, and if you they have some big scheme they are all going to execute, they are taking their sweet time while Putin builds the most experienced and formidable army in Europe"

Nobody in Russia would ever utter such words. This is bordering on brain damage, sorry. The Russian army cannot advance against a tiny Turkic rape baby nation on its doorstep, is now wrecked with random armies almost taking Moscow like it's 1941, and you're still living like it's 2020 when the Russians brokered a peace with Azerbaijan? Unbelievable.

Expand full comment

This war is not the same as Afghanistan, the Taliban had no weapons to match the GAE. But they had time, and they used that time well. Then they reconquered everything they had lost.

The fertility rate matters long term, but not in the short term. Russia has plenty of soldiers and has taken care not to waste the lives of their soldiers like Ukraine has done at the bidding of the corrupt filth that run the GAE.

Expand full comment

> "This war is not the same as Afghanistan, the Taliban had no weapons to match the GAE."

So naïve. The main difference is that the Afghans are brown people, and killing browns is forbidden in Christian America. Whereas Russians are white enough, so I fully expect the Christians to go into a frenzy at some point, and nuke Russia when time is due.

Expand full comment

> "Nevertheless, the fact remains that the Russian lines remain unbroken, that the Russian Army still controls a fifth of Ukraine"

That's just an utter lie.

1. For Russia to wage a positional war is already a defeat.

2. Russian lines were broken twice in 2022 - at Izyum and at Kherson.

3. Russia controls a tiny strip of the Azov Sea coastline, from Genichesk to Mariupol through Melitopol and Berdyansk.

> "There is no sign that Russia's economy is in trouble, that the war is unpopular, or that Putin's power is insecure."

Was this comment written in mid-July 2023? Seriously? After the Prigozhin coup d'état?

> "Even if he were somehow to fall, it would only be because he wasn't prosecuting the war hard enough."

But that's exactly what Putin has been doing? Doing everything to strengthen the enemies of Russia, within and without?

In short, Anglospheric people are fat and stupid, and it's not even a joke. In Russia, everyone considers Putin an enemy, from the monarchists to the stalinists, from liberaloids to the church goers. Putin is only good for the Armenian lobby, and for those few Jews who play on his side. Ah, almost forgot, Turkish rapists love Putin a lot, he offers them a lot of fresh Russian poon.

Expand full comment

Well, when the Ukrainians drive the Russian Army from Ukraine, and the Jews and Turks launch their conspiracy, which will apparently be supported by everyone in Russia, I’ll stand corrected.

Expand full comment

> "Well, when the Ukrainians drive the Russian Army from Ukraine"

True, I will admit that the Russian defensive victory in the Ukrainian spring offensive (yes, June is spring, although the Russians are laughing) was a pleasant surprise to me. But then again, I have for long been saying that if there is any hope for the survival of Europe, the advent of new culture might be forging right now in the steppes of Taurida.

In a word, the new Russian man is being born on the front-lines. Who might one day hang Putin, Zelensky, and all the other criminal Jews in sight. Apologies for my daydreaming.

Expand full comment

I have read Rolo's blog for a long time now. I also read Simplicius's blog which you are probably familiar with too. I would say that Rolo knows more and writes more about the internal politics in Russia. But Simplicius knows so much more about the war and usually backs it up with more photos and videos than I have time to go through.

Just to give one example, I'm sure you know this is an artillery war. Simplicius has often written about the artillery shell production numbers of both sides. He gives detailed numbers and the leaks that have come out, including the Pentagon leaks, proved him 100% correct. Correct me if I'm wrong, but when has Rolo ever written about 155 mm artillery shell production numbers? For example, what was Russia producing before the war, during the war, and the estimates for the next 5 years? By Russia or any other country? That's absolutely a crucial point to this war. It's just one example.

I'll stick with Simplicius's analysis of this war.

Expand full comment

I've checked out Simplicius a bit; his posts are very long and detailed. if you want to learn about detailed battles, tactics, equipment etc then Simplicius seems like your man. But I'm personally more interested in the *why* than the how. Why hasn't Russia blown the Dniper bridges, despite them being among the highest value targets in the war? Why are none of the 5D guys willing to answer Strelkov's pointed and direct questions about how the war is being run? My hope is to learn about why the world is structured the way it is, not become an armchair general. But I do understand the appeal.

Expand full comment

Actually Simplicius went into detail about why Dniper bridges were not blown. In short, Russia did not have the ability to blow most of them, so it was not even an option for them most of the time. (It would have taken way too many cruise missiles that were much better used on other targets. And they still don't have the ability to fly an uncontested bomber over those bridges and drop enough dumb bombs on them.)

Though there are certainly plenty of bridges that were not blown, Dniper river bridges and otherwise, that Russia could have blown. I think the answer is then pretty apparent. The Russian military is planning on using those bridges themselves at some point in the future and thinks they'll get more use out of them in the future than the enemy will right now. To me, that's a simple question with a simple answer and a cold logic to it.

I am not some Z anon person like some you've no doubt run into. I do think Rolo has good insight into internal Russian politics and those politics would make most of the Z anon crowd very uncomfortable. I doubt any of them appreciate the depth of the corruption in Russia.

Expand full comment

Dude, Russia went into the war without guided munitions and without UAVs. Maxim Kalashnikov says Russian war factories are still being closed sometimes, and there is no mobilisation of economy. No import substitution.

Even the strikes against the electric grid have been called as effectively not serious, but don't quote me on that as I have no idea about that. But goes to show what opinion the Russian patriotic netizen public holds for the Russian military command - either utter incompetence, or pure sabotage.

Expand full comment

Both of them have points worth listening to, but they cover different aspects of Russia and the conflict. Take each into consideration, and you'll get a good overall picture of what's going on, though no analyst has it all right. Too many moving parts that are moving very quickly indeed.

Expand full comment

Opposition figures paint their enemy leader in a badlight. News at 11.

Those idiots can't even organize a true opposition party, have no real following in the russian society, not even the CIA believes they amount to anything of consequence or else they would be swimming in money for regime change. But somehow, we must believe their sour grapes.

Expand full comment
Jul 14, 2023Liked by William M Briggs

I went back and looked for the Russian author’s name. Russian heritage, yes? The article sounds like it was forged in the Kremlin’s own propaganda department.

Some aspects of it are correct. Putin can no longer afford to lose, as the war effort, unpopular in his own land, has shaken his very place. I feel completely sure that if he’d known the cost, it would not have started.

If things are going so sweetly then why the failures? Why the nuclear threats, against Ukraine, the US, the world?

Generally speaking if Mother Russia wanted the agricultural and economic plum that is Ukraine, it wouldn’t completely destroy its cities. That is old-style devastation intended to make its enemy quit. They haven’t, and Mother Russia is in trouble.

Yes, the ruble stands strong. Yes, a fleet of tankers takes Russian oil, all over the world.

But, sir. It has not transpired anywhere near ol’ Vlad’s expectations. He is not patient. He is pissed. He is not calculating.

Vlad screwed up.

Expand full comment

You obviously get your news from the western mainstream. You're wasting your time reading all that delusional tripe. Putin has not "threatened" the use of nukes. On the contrary, he consistently states that he has no plans to use such weapons in Ukraine. And why would he? He's winning.

Russia has only experienced very small "failures": the Kerch bridge, limited damage rebuilt in a few months; a single hit on a center with a few hundred soldiers; roughly 25,000 KIA's in the entire SMO so far (compared w/ Ukraine's 250,000+ KIA, many more WIA).

And what has he gained? The US destroyed NordStream and as Europe wakes up to what it did this act will drive the final nail into the coffin of NATO. Western economies teetering on the brink, especially in Europe, which will also help propel them out of the US orbit -- not that Russia really cares or needs Europe anymore but he does want security guarantees. Russia has emerged as the new center of most of the globe, and they are taking apart Ukraine slowly and patiently.

Mind you - Putin started this war in a limited way to avoid mass casualties and bring Ukraine to the negotiating table. That's why he went in soft with nowhere near the number of troops needed to actually win decisively. The west drove that option over the cliff with that fatbag Boris Johnson's threats and false promises to back Ukraine. Then Putin reorganized the SMO (they use complex decision trees in their geopolitical planning, unlike the west that uses emotion and idiotic if/else logic) and is now patiently grinding Ukraine's ability to fight (and that of NATO as well thanks to their all-in approach) into the dust. When he deems the moment right he will sweep through the parts of Ukraine he wants and take them as well. The timing will likely depend on the geopolitical situation as the OP explains. Prigozhin's fake rebellion was partly an expression of the impatience felt in Russia at this slow pace, but Putin came out of it with his base of power affirmed and the country fully behind his patient approach. Of course nothing is certain in such complex moments as this but the weight of probability is on his side; and barring some totally mad move by the west that starts a nuclear war he will, in the "end", actually achieve more than he ever dreamed of at the start (nothing ever really ends, especially history -- much to the dismay of fools like Fukuyama).

Expand full comment

The beauty of this is that we are diametrically opposed, and only one of us is right. We shall see.

NATO is a defensive treaty.

Expand full comment

"NATO is a defensive treaty". You are correct in the legal sense: NATO was devised as a defensive pact and it's charter is a legal document. That legal document has been distorted and contorted to fit whatever project the empire demands.

You can see that in how it has actually behaved over the past 25+ years: Yugoslavia, Libya, Iraq (well this last technically not NATO but practically it was since the US controls NATO and there were other NATO nations involved). These were not wars of defense but wars of aggression, destabilization and conquest. Now NATO is discussing expansion to the Pacific rim. How exactly is that defensive for Europe or the north Atlantic?

NATO can repeat that mantra all day but no one believes it. Except you apparently.

And yes, we will see.

Expand full comment

Please link your assertion that “NATO is discussing expansion to the Pacific rim.” If that is true I’d like to know.

NATO would not be, as a group, responsible for the individual actions of any single member nation. I can’t agree that the US controls it. All pay in. NATO conducted internationally-funded overflights in the US immediately following the 9/11 attacks on the Pentagon and the WTC. And it was formed to prevent Russian aggression, specifically.

Expand full comment

Just google "nato expands to the pacific" and you'll find a huge number of articles all about it. They started discussing it at last year's summit. It's designed to "counter Chinese aggression" which means it's designed to contain and control China.

NATO is absolutely US controlled and always was. The first NATO Secretary General, Lord Ismay, stated the organization's goal was "to keep the Russians out, the Americans in, and the Germans down".

And as for preventing Russian aggression, it has singularly failed at that (the Soviets had no interest in westward expansion -- they had enough trouble with the satellite states they already controlled) and it began down the current road in 1997 when it began it's eastward expansion. NATO is now designed to prevent events created by its own existence. It's the self-licking ice-cream cone that keeps the military industrial complex churning. Unfortunately for the US, it's only a money making complex at this point: they forgot about the military and industrial bits.

Expand full comment

I have not yet searched it, but I will. You and I are in danger of reaching a point of agreement. Such an expansion would be, how do we say? “Shit stupid.”

Expand full comment

Oremus indeed! Ad Jesum per Mariam🙏

Expand full comment

Good post, except for that bit about China at the end. It is not in Russia or China's interest to have a war in any foreseeable future. They need each other, and both know it. Only holding together can they break the power of the GAE and its dollar.

But yes, the empire is falling apart. You can see it all around you, the infrastructure, the people, the financial system, etc. It's all breaking apart slowly, and the retards in DC are oblivious to it as they still look longingly at Russia's land and resources. They want all of that, they want to take it for themselves and the ethnic oligarchs who own and control them.

Expand full comment

This piece nails it. Only thing I disagree with is there will be no war between Russia and China, at least not in our lifetimes. They are far too sensible and they complement each other in too many ways: Russia has great reserves of commodities and ultra high tech military and aerospace knowledge that China needs while Russia needs a large, solid partner to trade with now that they’ve abandoned Europe. Together with India they will dominate trade in the 21st century. Also, neither Russia nor China have expansionist ambitions. Russia is not the Soviet Union and China, well they’ve been insular for 5,000 years and I don’t think they’re going to change now.

And I think it could flesh out the belief part a bit more: it’s not just Russia’s renewed national power and pride and the west realizing it’s own frailty; the rest of the world is slowly realizing the west is a hollow shell. That may take a bit of time but I think it’s already dawning.

At least a third of US GDP is fake — or more accurately it’s growth-negative since it’s based on economic rents and predatory finance which are a functional drain on real production and consumption. Now add all the money we spend on overpriced real estate, shitty healthcare and dated weapons and it may be more like half US GDP is inhibitory. Belief is fading fast as this reality becomes more apparent.

Putin is the most impressive statesman since… perhaps ever. He will be remembered as Vladimir the Great throughout Eurasia. The only critique I can think of that statement is the west — in all it’s sneering pride and arrogance — made his job a lot easier with every move.

I do wonder what kind of breakdown the liberal PMC class will have when they can no longer avoid the realization of how badly they fucked everything up. We have before us a perfect case study for the axiom that there is an inverse relationship between competence and self-regard.

Again, great piece. It also hit me from the way it’s phrased that the western elite’s selection of the rainbow flag as it’s symbol is entirely apropos. After all, a rainbow has no substance at all.

Expand full comment

The rainbow has always meant God and nature to me, and it still does. I will not yield it to the alphabet tribe or the rest of the woke communists.

Thankfully, the transexual cult has been putting more and more stupid crap on the alphabet flag, so the rainbow is slowly being covered over by them. It will help us to take it back.

Expand full comment

The rest of the world is "realizing" the West to be a "shell" only because the West failed to genocide all the non-Whites when it could.

Regarding the insular nature of China - Japan used to be likewise, too, and yet it stepped on the path to world domination rather fast. Hence my most precious dream is that America plunges into civil war, brain-damaged idiots of one of the sides invite the Chinese expeditionary corps for help, and then the Chinese leave none alive. The Mongoloid race triumphant. (Personally, I'm Ukrainian, an honorary Asian Turk rape-baby represent.)

Expand full comment

I see. So the west should've genocided what is it - 3/4 of the world's population? Very Ukrainian view I must say. Your parents must be proud.

By your logic Russia should liquidate Ukraine. No wonder Hitler threw Bandera into prison for most of the war. Even Hitler wasn't as murderous as all that.

Expand full comment

Well, my Ukrainian comrades are currently killing their own nation while also serving a literal Jew. I'm the only Nazi in the Ukraine, sadly. And unfortunately, the Banderites never had a spine - the UPA fighters are all rolling in their graves looking at what the Ukraine has become, a Polish-Jewish slave.

Killing foreigners is something that every nation on this planet intuitively understands. It's only the Christian nations that have abandoned their sense of self-preservation, and have sacrificed themselves for the proliferation of Jews, Slavs, Africans, gays, and now transvestites.

Yes, even the mindful Burmese Buddhists have genocided a million Rohingya Muslims as recently as 2016. And the Turkish Muslims killed millions of Armenian Christians a century ago, and are now repeating the same process in Artsakh. It's Nature taking its course. If you oppose it, fine, but then you are opposing Nature.

The Occident won. The European race was ready to slit everyone's throat in 1914. But then it lost its marbles. Still, it is taking really long for my kind to draw its last canine breath. Hence my hope for the Sino-Koreans to end our suffering one day.

Expand full comment

> "Harness the Troika and stay in control. Slow is good, Komrade."

I almost threw up from the cringe overwhelming. Is this some kind of yellow fever weebery, but directed to the Russian culture? How can you fetishise such blunt klukva (cranberry)?

https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/Развесистая_клюква?useskin=vector

What's up with calling Putin "comrade" at all? He's a libtard, remember? Appointed by Tsin-Yel himself, also known as Borya the Alcash (=alcoholic).

Thanks for keeping the comments open, however! Found you via Rolo (who supports the Jew Prigozhin).

Expand full comment
Jul 15, 2023·edited Jul 15, 2023

Yay, here comes the much anticipated Rolo's response 😊 (h/t stalker @PE_Bird for requesting it!)

🗨 I think that what we *might* have here is a simple disagreement in opinion and that we ought to be able to debate the thesis coolly, clinically and respectfully.[...] It’s time to break the conspiracy of silence and start having the difficult talk.

roloslavskiy.substack.com/p/the-long-checkmate-the-kremlin-is

Expand full comment

Buen artículo, Guillermo, lectura reconfortante, amena y directa. Homenaje a Kundera.

Expand full comment
Comment deleted
Expand full comment
Jul 13, 2023Liked by William M Briggs

This is exactly who is to blame. The pro-Biden retards. They bought it all, hook, line and sinker.

Yes, I know your comment was sarcasm. At least I hope so.

Expand full comment
Comment deleted
Expand full comment

I am anti-“great reset,” through and through. Yes, though, let’s rebuild. A collapse isn’t necessary, nor is it advisable. We need an actual collaboration of elected...not self-appointed, corporate oligarchs led by Germany...officials whose interests are reflected by the wishes of their respective electorates. The UN has coupled itself to the WEF turd farm that wishes to wipe out national sovereignties with the notable exception of Germany.

There is your problem.

Expand full comment

> "not self-appointed, corporate oligarchs led by Germany"

Wait, there is a conspiracy theory current that thinks Germany to be running the show? After the Americans blew up the Nordstream 2 pipeline?

Expand full comment

Who actually knows, other than those who blew it up? Not really at issue, but:

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/prize-winning-reporter-seymour-hersh-no-stranger-controversy-2023-02-09/

The conspiracy theory, regrettably, appears to be just mine. Allow me to direct you to a response I spent a lot of time writing, just this morning:

https://dochammer.substack.com/p/tonic-discussions-10-and-11-national/comment/20835697

This tells the complete story as I see it.

There is no one “in charge,” running the show, as you’ve put it.

That may be about to change.

Expand full comment

Whether or not Germany as a nation is complicit is actually not terribly relevant, either. But Chancellor Merkel was WEF before she became chancellor. Schwab grew up watching his country rebuild after Hitler. And the WEF website does in fact, in various locations, laud German technological superiority, innovation and leadership. I see that as relevant, especially in view of EU debt to Germany, which nation “writes the checks.”

Expand full comment