I do like Vovk and Shafer's redefinition of probability theory in terms of bets between rational agents rather than using measure theory. I'm like 99% certain neither of them think "prediction markets" are anything more than a casino-like scam to take nerd moneys.
i've been to a casino, one arm bandits, playing with $50 (that was my self imposed limit).... walked out with $250 some 30 years ago, and i have never been back.
They should update the song for Alexander, 'I blinded myself with science.' The comparison to moldbug's wordiness got a big laugh. spot on.
What a rake!
I was kicking myself for not betting hundreds of thousands of dollars on Harris, but I guess I wouldn't have been able to do that anyway.
538 is no longer Silver’s project
Also, please do something on 538 just because Silver has been a little squishy lately.
He left 538
Brilliant stuff! Prop bet: the Cackler will cackle at Biden's funeral
I do like Vovk and Shafer's redefinition of probability theory in terms of bets between rational agents rather than using measure theory. I'm like 99% certain neither of them think "prediction markets" are anything more than a casino-like scam to take nerd moneys.
i've been to a casino, one arm bandits, playing with $50 (that was my self imposed limit).... walked out with $250 some 30 years ago, and i have never been back.
I'll have more about bets and probabilities soon (in the class).