If Trump Wins, Will There Be Chaos?

I blew my prediction that the left would dump Biden and install Gruesome Newsom in his place, fortify the election in his favor, and so cement permanent leftist rule (blog/Substack). Got the Biden part right, but this was as difficult as predicting an American politician will give your money to fund Middle East wars. So beware of putting too much faith in the predictions below.

But. There is still something to the Gruesome Newsom angle. Two somethings. Here’s a Zero Hedge headline from this past weekend: “‘I’m With Elon’: Gavin Newsom Unexpectedly Backs SpaceX In California Lawsuit Against Rogue Democrats“. Harridans on some unnecessary bureaucracy in California, instituted to create jobs for Experts to put stamps on business paperwork (very Asian behavior), were publicly signaling they would deny Elon a stamp for his SpaceX business, because—and I do not jest—mean tweets.

Musk filed a suit against the bureaucrats. Gruesome Newsom then chided the harridans for bringing politics into it, saying, as you saw, “I’m with Elon.”

That’s the first. Here’s the second: GN didn’t try to run. He could have attempted to insinuate himself, but did not. In the soft coup to oust Biden, Biden, summoning an unknown well of strength, knifed his assassins and saddled Democrats with The Cackler. GN, and other greedily ambitious people like Gretchen Nightmare, acquiesced quietly, and even volunteered to help in The Cackler’s campaign. But they haven’t been especially energetic, have they.

Anecdotes like these and others suggest these people knew The Cackler would crack, and that their time would come later. Meaning they expected, and did not especially hate, Trump’s retaking the Chair.

Charles Haywood has been predicting Trump would win, and that sometime soon after, leftists, not possessing strong reasoning abilites and prone to hersterics, would overreact and unleash chaos, up to and including a coup against Trump.

Trump’s election does seems highly probable at this point, in line with Haywood’s prediction. But I wonder about the forecasted immediate chaos. The Cackler has been such a comically inept bumbler that the wind has been eaten from the left’s sails. Because of her ineptitude, many seem resigned to Trump, see e.g. the reaction of elites at the Al Smith dinner. Elites, mind. The undersoliders are just as lunatic as ever, but their propaganda is today performed with muted enthusiasm.

If The Cackler had been even remotely sober or viable, then the reaction against Trump’s victory would likely be as Haywood predicted. But most see there’s no spackling over her cackling. Not to say leftist-generated chaos won’t come sometime after, especially if it looks like Trump is doing well for himself, or that Vance looks like he’d be ready to step up, thus depriving the left of what they see as rightfully theirs. Or they get the war the neocon faction are aching for. The fat blue-hairs and effeminates will take to the streets and bay at passersby, certainly. But they do that because it’s Tuesday.

They’ve had their chance to start something and didn’t. The left always has casus belli to sponsor more riots. But they haven’t, not like 2020. There was the rampaging knife-wielding screaming giant of last week, killed in trying to attack a cop. This was the death of an Official Victim at the hands of an Official Oppressor, too. There were one or two calls of “racism” after, but you get these like comments about the weather. Everything is “racist”. There was no sense from left leaders that they wanted to turn the latest thing into a “thing”, like they did with lifelong thug and loser criminal George Floyd.

Ed Feser reminds us that we’ve been here before, stuck in a loop, as it were, as foreseen by Plato (ellipsis his):

As Plato warns in the Republic, one of the characteristic marks of a democracy that is decaying into tyranny is that each faction accuses the other of being a threat to democracy and attempts to use the legal system to bring it to heel: “[Citizens] are then accused by their rivals of plotting against the people and being reactionaries and oligarchs, even though in fact they may have no revolutionary intentions… There follow impeachments and trials in which the two parties bring each other to court”

It does not follow from this that the accusations are always false. We recall The Great Fortification of 2020, and the fortuitous and coincidental-across-five-states middle-of-the-night bumps in votes for Biden, producing, remarkably, just enough votes in each state to put him ahead. Those F-graphs are now a well known symbol for fortification.

They could certainly fortify this year, and surely will, to some extent. It’s habitual. Ask Nixon. And here we have the Attorney General of Michigan choking on her own words as she says how Honest and Open™ the election will be, and why she’s sad that she won’t be able to announce the total until—the number of votes needed are known?

Can the fortify enough for The Cackler? They had Biden win by the Most Votes Evah, but given what we’ve seen this campaign, they’d have to do better than that this time. That’s a lot of fortification. And who would believe it?

Well, NPR listeners. They believe whatever they’re told.

Here’s the gut reason I think there will normal and not (especially) chaotic times. The visceral steamy gibbering irrational hate for Trump isn’t there this time. Dislike, yes. Mild unhappiness, certainly. Groupthink of course. But loathing and abomination, like in 2020? It’s not there. There’s more a feeling of acceptance.

On the other hand, supposing they do Max Fortify, and it's obvious to all they did, then nothing happens. Oh, the right will sputter and point, and I'll write a tsk-tsk post on probability. But the right won't take to the streets. The initial prediction of permanent leftist rule will have been fulfilled.

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