The math may be nonsense, but the DA achieved the most important goal of any academic exercise: it generated attention, and therefore citations, for the academic who made it.
That said, the somehow related Lindy effect (if something has been around for T years, expect it to be around for another T years) is often a useful heuristic, particularly when it comes to discussions with current-thing enthusiasts.
I'm sure you've read this, but in the book Statistics Hacks there's a chapter called "Predict the length of a lifetime" wherein Mr. Gott is discussed. The method requires you to know a starting point and roughly figure out the midpoint and with some percentage of confidence you can then predict the ending.
My thinking back then as I read that chapter is that while it can be a handy tool when guesstimating something it is is more proper for things like predicting the closure of modern company with definite start date that we know of and roughly estimating the midpoint, for example. Trying to predict human civilization fall is very tricky. What is even the starting point? Where would we put the midpoint? There's too many confounding variables to consider so I suspect Mr. Gott should have just left that query alone.
Are you familiar with The Doomsday Myth (https://amzn.to/3TnrVfy)? Easily the best take-down of the Malthusian lie I've come across, despite being decades-old at this point. The authors survey a wide variety of historical crises to demonstrate that a resource-based doomsday will arrive only if we suspend the functioning of free markets.
'I want to predict something but have no proposed mechanism. I'm not going to put in any actual information. I think that instead I will just play with numbers and see if something salable pops out.' Modern science in a nutshell, and they claim trust is dropping because of us.
The math may be nonsense, but the DA achieved the most important goal of any academic exercise: it generated attention, and therefore citations, for the academic who made it.
Many such cases.
The only prediction I believe is that most predictions are full of crap.
First time I hear this but it sounds like total nonsense.
Love of assumptions is the root of all absurdities.
There are lies, damned lies, and, now, the Doomsday Argument.
Kind of like the Drake Equation for the possibility of intelligent life in the universe...assumption after assumption...
That said, the somehow related Lindy effect (if something has been around for T years, expect it to be around for another T years) is often a useful heuristic, particularly when it comes to discussions with current-thing enthusiasts.
I'm sure you've read this, but in the book Statistics Hacks there's a chapter called "Predict the length of a lifetime" wherein Mr. Gott is discussed. The method requires you to know a starting point and roughly figure out the midpoint and with some percentage of confidence you can then predict the ending.
My thinking back then as I read that chapter is that while it can be a handy tool when guesstimating something it is is more proper for things like predicting the closure of modern company with definite start date that we know of and roughly estimating the midpoint, for example. Trying to predict human civilization fall is very tricky. What is even the starting point? Where would we put the midpoint? There's too many confounding variables to consider so I suspect Mr. Gott should have just left that query alone.
Are you familiar with The Doomsday Myth (https://amzn.to/3TnrVfy)? Easily the best take-down of the Malthusian lie I've come across, despite being decades-old at this point. The authors survey a wide variety of historical crises to demonstrate that a resource-based doomsday will arrive only if we suspend the functioning of free markets.
No, will look.
'I want to predict something but have no proposed mechanism. I'm not going to put in any actual information. I think that instead I will just play with numbers and see if something salable pops out.' Modern science in a nutshell, and they claim trust is dropping because of us.
Is there any math predicting the likelihood of experts going back to blowing up beached whales and leaving us alone?