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I have finally found it, the smoking gun:

"Use of excess mortality associated with the COVID-19 epidemic as an epidemiological surveillance strategy - preliminary results of the evaluation of six Brazilian capitals" - André Ricardo Ribas Freitas et.al. medRx preprint. - May 12, 2020

This is the basic outline for the EXCESS MORTALITY = COVID = EXCESS MORTALITY circular model, of "epidemiological integrity".

Now I can retire.

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Ah, why is Y where y is? That is the question.

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