Love the Monty problem William. I've explained it so many times and it spurs a lot of debate. Many cannot see how this works. Mostly liberals as I recall.
And I love that high school yearbook photo of Briggs (front row left), next to Maggie Thatcher! You can tell she's worried about the Germans invading. World War Two!
I've been thinking a lot about the earlier homework problem: Pr(P) does not exist; it has to be Pr(P|Q).
(1) First I thought about the proposition: "the sun always rises" - but this is not always true e.g. in winter N of the Arctic Circle or S of the Antarctic Circle.
(2) Then I thought about the proposition: "everyone has a birthday" ... Surely there is no Q here?
(3) However, the implicit Q may be the assumption that everyone has been a living thing, and every living thing has a birthday, so Pr(P=everything has a birthday|Q=everything has been a living thing).
Am I on the right track? I do hope this isn't too trivial an example, and apologies for being so slow on the uptake - must be my aging brain.
Love the Monty problem William. I've explained it so many times and it spurs a lot of debate. Many cannot see how this works. Mostly liberals as I recall.
And I love that high school yearbook photo of Briggs (front row left), next to Maggie Thatcher! You can tell she's worried about the Germans invading. World War Two!
Alright my answer is locked in. Let's see if I remembered how to do this.
William,
I've been thinking a lot about the earlier homework problem: Pr(P) does not exist; it has to be Pr(P|Q).
(1) First I thought about the proposition: "the sun always rises" - but this is not always true e.g. in winter N of the Arctic Circle or S of the Antarctic Circle.
(2) Then I thought about the proposition: "everyone has a birthday" ... Surely there is no Q here?
(3) However, the implicit Q may be the assumption that everyone has been a living thing, and every living thing has a birthday, so Pr(P=everything has a birthday|Q=everything has been a living thing).
Am I on the right track? I do hope this isn't too trivial an example, and apologies for being so slow on the uptake - must be my aging brain.
I'm really enjoying your class!
(1) Pr(Sun always rises | information about latitutde etc.)
(2) Pr(Everyone has birthday | info about human procreation)
(3) Yep.