Be More Uncertain (About Models)
Class 82
Reminder: The Thursday Class is only for those interested in studying uncertainty. I don’t expect all want to read these posts. So please don’t feel like you must. Yet, I have nowhere else to put them besides here. Your support makes this Class possible for those who need it. Thank you.
Most models are models of models of models of uncertain data. Please exhibit the appropriate skepticism of these models.
Video
Links: YouTube * Twitter – X * Rumble * Bitchute * Class Page * Jaynes Book * Uncertainty
HOMEWORK: Find your own time series with trendy trend lines. See if they suffer from the Deadly Sin of reification.
Lecture
Today’s lecture consists of two classic posts, along with supplementary material and discussion in the video. I could have re-written all for the lecture, but I couldn’t see how that would improve anything.
Good news is that if you’ve already read the old posts, you don’t need to read them again. If you remember them. Which you being wise and perspicacious, prerequisites for being a regular here, you surely do.
How To Generate Massive Scientific Over-Certainty With These Four Simple Tricks
Why You Don’t Have To Worry About Climate Change: Multiplication Of Uncertainties
Here are the various ways to support this work:
I only understand part of these presentations but they are a hoot. "...comparing apples and Buicks..." It takes a special person to think like that.