Well, but mystical deaths are so much more interesting, especially when they entice one to speculate and go on "fact"-finding sprees.
I agree with this though: "How at this late date any media story is believed is perhaps the most disappointing aspect, to me, anyway. This lesson ought to have been learned better by now." - yep, and please add that the phrase 'wake up!' is a sure sign that the user loves abstruse explanations. In my catalogue of red flags it comes right next to 'sheeple': avoid those who use them!
A surprisingly large number of people disappear without a trace while hiking in wilderness areas, including national parks (they are NOT Disneyland). Advice: don't hike alone.
Whenever I see "What Are the Chances..." in one of your headlines, I make sure not to have coffee in my mouth before I start reading. The wisdom of THAT heuristic was in full force today! What Are the Chances of THAT, eh Briggs?
And at the next family funeral I am ABSOLUTELY going to bring up the "No autopsy" question for some long dead relatives who went under "unusual" circumstances. I'm practically humming with anticipation, in fact, for someone to kick it - (which says a lot about me, I reckon... or my family... or both. Prolly both.)
As the bolts continue to pop out of our society, social stress increases - and we get more of these hysterias. Coming along like buses, ever more frequently. Over-population, resource exhaustion, massive poisonous pollution, satanic cults, global cooling, global warming, child kidnappings, AIDS killing off humanity, white slavery.
These serve to channel fears about the decay of our society into approved channels. Otherwise people might rationally observe and think about our problems, then organize to fix them. Can’t have that! Who knows what might happen!
Speaking as a retired (high priced) bookie, I agree: that’s the smart money bet. I’ve been documenting our decay for a quarter-century. Here is one perspective on our situation:
Your analysis is, of course, reasonable and sound. I do have to nitpick one little thing though. It seems kind of silly to assume the national missing persons rate will hold at a place like Los Alamos, given the large % of missing persons who are minors in broken families and people in tough situations generally, vs the relatively stable, affluent, respected lifestyles of Los Alamos workers.
Depressingly true: "How at this late date any media story is believed is perhaps the most disappointing aspect, to me, anyway. This lesson ought to have been learned better by now."
Apparently I have an Erdos number of 3, if I can believe a note tucked into a book [1] from the previous owner claiming to have an Erdos number of 2. I don't feel like I'm any smarter.
[1] a used book - a once semi-popular text about the non-popular topic of DAEs (differential algebraic equations).
Thanks for this. My first reaction to hearing this "news" was, people die. I appreciate your putting numbers to that thought. Meanwhile, I have to get back to proving that many of my ancestors, MY FAMILY MEMBERS!, have died or gone missing over the years...
Oh good. I feel in good company seeing your skepticism about the latest conspiracy panic. I looked up a few of the missing and realized it was stupid. One was an admin assistant with family trouble. One disappeared while hiking. The general had memory problems. The only actually suspicious one I looked up was Steven Garcia.
It's you!!! You are part of the cover-up. You're the Chief Explainer-Awayer!
You should see how much I’m getting for this.
(Bring your microscope.)
LOL
Perhaps it was only SADS (Sudden Adult Death Syndrome), aka the Covid shot.
For another statistician's take on this see Denis Rancourt.
https://substack.com/@denisrancourt/posts
Gwyneth,
I could not find Denis's post at the link you provided. Can you add the title of it?
My apologies, I had to find it on-line as it isn't posted on his substack page.
https://hal.science/hal-05110349
You may also find this of interest.
https://denisrancourt.ca/uploads_entries/1776280392511_Rancourt%20-%20All-cause%20mortality%20-%20ICS4-Romania%20-%20v5%20-%20zenodo_Merged.pdf
Well, but mystical deaths are so much more interesting, especially when they entice one to speculate and go on "fact"-finding sprees.
I agree with this though: "How at this late date any media story is believed is perhaps the most disappointing aspect, to me, anyway. This lesson ought to have been learned better by now." - yep, and please add that the phrase 'wake up!' is a sure sign that the user loves abstruse explanations. In my catalogue of red flags it comes right next to 'sheeple': avoid those who use them!
A surprisingly large number of people disappear without a trace while hiking in wilderness areas, including national parks (they are NOT Disneyland). Advice: don't hike alone.
Whenever I see "What Are the Chances..." in one of your headlines, I make sure not to have coffee in my mouth before I start reading. The wisdom of THAT heuristic was in full force today! What Are the Chances of THAT, eh Briggs?
Heh. Gotcha. PWND. Maths.
And at the next family funeral I am ABSOLUTELY going to bring up the "No autopsy" question for some long dead relatives who went under "unusual" circumstances. I'm practically humming with anticipation, in fact, for someone to kick it - (which says a lot about me, I reckon... or my family... or both. Prolly both.)
As the bolts continue to pop out of our society, social stress increases - and we get more of these hysterias. Coming along like buses, ever more frequently. Over-population, resource exhaustion, massive poisonous pollution, satanic cults, global cooling, global warming, child kidnappings, AIDS killing off humanity, white slavery.
These serve to channel fears about the decay of our society into approved channels. Otherwise people might rationally observe and think about our problems, then organize to fix them. Can’t have that! Who knows what might happen!
Nobody's gonna organize and fix them. Hard times cometh.
Speaking as a retired (high priced) bookie, I agree: that’s the smart money bet. I’ve been documenting our decay for a quarter-century. Here is one perspective on our situation:
Our future if we continue to be rabbits.
https://editorfmwebsite.substack.com/p/draft-a-look-at-our-future-if-we
OK, I'll take your word for it.
But stay away from Bigfoot. I want to believe.
Ha! Serendipity strikes! What're the odds?!
Next up on my "to read" list is this blockbuster account of the FBI's Bigfoot files:
Why the FBI Secretly Investigated Bigfoot—and the Brutal Truth They Found
Take a peek inside the Bureau’s official probe into Sasquatch.
By Andrew DanielsPublished: Apr 19, 2026 8:40 AM EDT
https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/animals/a71064345/fbi-official-bigfoot-file-released/
Now all I'm left with is my far-fetched conspiracy theory that the Israel lobby controls our foreign policy.
I love the way you make sense out of nonsense, you old denier, you!
The White House WAS going to give YOU a call. But consider yourself pre-fired.
Your analysis is, of course, reasonable and sound. I do have to nitpick one little thing though. It seems kind of silly to assume the national missing persons rate will hold at a place like Los Alamos, given the large % of missing persons who are minors in broken families and people in tough situations generally, vs the relatively stable, affluent, respected lifestyles of Los Alamos workers.
Depressingly true: "How at this late date any media story is believed is perhaps the most disappointing aspect, to me, anyway. This lesson ought to have been learned better by now."
People are still getting Covid boosters.
And driving alone in a car with the mask on.
As the sage of the age, Wun Hung Lo, says, "It's all so tiresome."
😂
Novartis, you say?
Well, I don’t let Steve walk the dog alone anymore.
Scratch that, it’s raining.
Apparently I have an Erdos number of 3, if I can believe a note tucked into a book [1] from the previous owner claiming to have an Erdos number of 2. I don't feel like I'm any smarter.
[1] a used book - a once semi-popular text about the non-popular topic of DAEs (differential algebraic equations).
Thanks for this. My first reaction to hearing this "news" was, people die. I appreciate your putting numbers to that thought. Meanwhile, I have to get back to proving that many of my ancestors, MY FAMILY MEMBERS!, have died or gone missing over the years...
Oh good. I feel in good company seeing your skepticism about the latest conspiracy panic. I looked up a few of the missing and realized it was stupid. One was an admin assistant with family trouble. One disappeared while hiking. The general had memory problems. The only actually suspicious one I looked up was Steven Garcia.