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Paul Fischer's avatar

Another interesting lecture William. Thank you!

William M Briggs's avatar

Thanks for sticking with it.

TheAbjectLesson's avatar

Sgt Briggs, your post immediately brings George Polya's work to mind - he was very explicit about how important it is to get good at guessing.

"Certainly, let us learn proving, but also *let us learn guessing*."

Mathematics and Plausible Reasoning, Vol. 1, Intro, p.vi (italics in original).

William M Briggs's avatar

Now that is a nice compliment, thanks.

Gwyneth's avatar

"The proof of the pudding is in the eating". 17th century proverb. Tangible results and direct experience are the true measures of worth and skill, although, in this time of a digital age, tangible takes on a somewhat ephemeral quality.

Crixcyon's avatar

..."Wouldn’t you like to know if your stock broker is just guessing? Be nice to have confidence your doctor knows what he’s talking about when he recommends the New & Improved! Profitol, wouldn’t it?"...well both are just guessing. There is no 100% certainty to anything either of these two "artists" are telling you. They may be highly skilled but that would amount to being highly skilled in guessing.