Our Coming Murder & Crime Wave

In 2020, we saw a large increase in murders. Homicides were up 30% from 2019, an increase which is called "historic". "[G]un assault and aggravated assault rates climbed 8 percent and 6 percent, respectively."

Most of the increase, that linked report demonstrates, came from large cities, such as where BLM riots took place. The "'precipitous rise' in murders during the emergence of civil unrest and protests following George Floyd's death" are admitted.

The riots have declined, but summer is ahead of us. And even if riots aren't repeated, given the apologia for the murders and other violent crime by our rulers and media, and the lack of desire to punish crime, crime will only increase. Though crime might not hit peak 2020 levels in 2021 (though some say it will), it will rise from 2019 levels and increase from there.

Using history as a guide, most of these increases will in black crime. Most of this will be black-on-black crime, but back-on-non-black will also increase.

According to official FBI statistics, blacks committed 40-69% of all murders in 2019. The 2020 numbers by race aren't posted yet.

Blacks are about 13.4% of the population.

The 40-69% range is because 29% of all murderers have an unknown race. Assuming none of these are black gives 40%; assuming all gives 69%.

The same calculation for whites: assuming no unknown murders are white gives 29% of all murderers are white, assuming all unknowns are white gives 59%.

Whites are about 60% of the population.

Thus, no matter what, blacks are more murderous than whites. (Incidentally, similar statistics are found in England and other places.)

You have to be careful because race is often unknown when the criminal is not arrested. Arrest numbers/percentages therefore differ.

Here are the arrest breakdowns (2019): When race is known, blacks were about 51% of murder arrestees, and whites were 46%.

Blacks are arrested at rates greater than their population percentage for all crimes (rape, robbery, assault, burglary, larceny, arson, forgery, etc) except DUI and drunkenness, where they are just under parity (defined as as many crimes as population, in percent).

It's doubtful we can come to an exact estimate for the race of the unknown murderers, but there is good reason to suppose a large number are black (and that a lot of these crimes are black-on-black). Most of this evidence comes from policing, and how it is being drawn back in areas with large black populations. And, as said above, the reluctance to punish.

We recall, as a recent example, the story of the two black girls who hijacked an Uber driver's car during an attempted robbery, who murdered the driver, and got a "cushy plea deal."

Then there are crimes like these:

https://twitter.com/Billy2_O/status/1394780745181274113

This next meme illustrates why there is not only reluctance to punish, but why efforts to forestall crime are unsupported or called "racist".

https://twitter.com/HarmlessYardDog/status/1395086432029585417

Car jackings (video) and home invasions are up (video).

We saw recently that a young black man punched and killed an elderly non-black man because, said the killer, he was called a "nigger". Hearing--or claiming to have heard---this word creates the circumstances for justifiable homicide, say some (and this).

Those are only illustrations. There is also more systematic evidence.

Quote from a 17 May 2021 Newsweek article on decreased policing and punishment:

When the Antifa/Black Lives Matter riots broke out in the summer of 2020 and violent crime dramatically spiked across the country, Soros-backed Los Angeles County District Attorney George Gascón in particular advanced a notably soft-on-crime prosecutorial approach. That hands-off approach has continued unabated in 2021.

Before taking office in Los Angeles, Gascón worked as the district attorney in San Francisco, a city that led in both violent and property crimes in California and all-too frequently resisted making arrests when needed to maintain basic public safety. Now, crime is spiking under Gascón's leadership as the chief law enforcement officer of over 10 million Angelenos...

Gascón justifies his soft-on-murder approach by connecting the death penalty to racism. "In light of its unequal application to people of color, the death penalty inflicts an extraordinary amount of harm to the moral authority of our justice system," he wrote in an order. In other words, Gascón is forfeiting the pursuit of real justice in the name of woke social justice.

It can hardly be argued a "soft-on-murder approach" will lead to a decrease in murders. The death penalty objection, which anyway is wrong about race, is really moot. Since 1977, California has executed 17 criminals, and the last execution was in 2006.

The prediction is that black crime will increase in LA. And in other areas which adopt similar policies. These lax, even anarcho-tyrannical, policies are evidence many of the non-arrested murderers are black.

Another example. During and after the 2020 riots, there were many calls, and even some actions, to reduce funding to policing. Police in Minnesota, at least, withdrew vigilance. As a result, violent crime increased by 21% in 2020. But there was also a 250% increase in gunshot victims. (This points to a difficulty comparing murder numbers year on year, because access to lifesaving medicine can differ markedly.) Also: "rape is up 22% and robbery is up 59% compared to" 2019. These number, of course, are due in part to the mayhem of the riots.

There is no one arguing that the increases in murders and violence are primarily due to whites, Asians, or Hispanics instead of blacks.

Indeed, the opposite is true. It is claimed there are "racial inequities in unsolved murder cases". This article uses GIS to show most unsolved murders are in predominately black areas. The Washington Post agrees: "Some cities, such as Baltimore and Chicago, solve so few homicides that vast areas stretching for miles experience hundreds of homicides with virtually no arrests."

Since most murderers know their victims, and since most unsolved (non-arrested) murders are in predominately black areas, it is reasonable to conclude most of the unknown-race murderers are black. And thus something toward the higher end of the black murder rate is more likely correct. (Though we cannot arrive at an exact number.)

Now comes this: "What caused the dramatic rise of crime and blight in American cities from 1950 to 2000?" This is a long and rich article, which I hope you will read. Its conclusion is that, historically, black violence, enhanced by apologies and unwillingness to enforce the law because "racism", comes before white (and now other races) flight. And that flight leads to greater crimes in the areas in which whites (and now others too) used to live.

The author concludes (all typos sic):

It may make readers uncomfortable that this essay has put so much emphasis on violence committed by black people. People who focus too much on selecting anectdotes of black crime are often accused of cherry-picking facts to further a racist narrative. I can only hope you believe me when I say that when I first started reseaching the problem of urban decay over a decade ago, the analysis in this post was not something I set out to prove. Rather, I set out to find as many first-hand, narratives accounts of urban decay and “white flight” as I could. I wanted to learn the story from the people who were actually there, or from the people who interviewed the people who were actually there. And these are the stories I found, over and over again. And these were the stories that were almost completely ommitted from my college courses -- we only ever heard that white people left because the suburbs were so much better -- without hearing why people thought the suburbs were better. We heard about block busters promoting fear -- without learning that the fears were justified, not irrational.

It should also be pointed out that it is erroneous to single out violent young black men as the villains in this story. I think a lot of American politics is basically manipulating enforcement of the law in order to steal turf from other people. A fair amount of blame goes to the liberal WASP establisment, who in their battle with the ethnic white political power, relaxed enforcement of the law in black areas, hooked them on welfare, and used black people as a tool for claiming political power.

Right now we are in a vicious cycle. In academic and policy wonk circles, any criticism of “black crime” is considered victim blaming and possibly racist. The problems of the black community are instead pinned on segregation and racist policing. Yet it is not segregation that causes the crime. And every time we try to integrate, without fixing the crime problem, integration fails because white people flee the violence. And while police misbehavior is a problem, under-policing is also a big problem. When we cannot honestly describe the problem, when we cannot propose proper solutions, the problem only becomes worse.

The old cycle is repeating itself. Black crime, much of it black-on-black, will rise because much of it will go unpursued and unpunished. Whites, and also Asians and Hispanics, will flee blacks to what they hope are safer enclaves. This will be called "racism" by all the powers-that-be, especially when non-blacks try to resist black crime. The force of our rulers' false rhetoric will cause a further decrease in the pursuit of crime, and an acceleration in the flight.

The increase stops when enough non-blacks have fled, leaving enclaves with large black populations which see many crimes go unreported. See historically Detroit as a good example. This, of course, is a difficult contention to prove, because what isn't written down isn't officially noticed.

There is no solution. None that would be politically acceptable, at any rate. Though perhaps the idea of allowing blacks to police themselves in large black areas might catch on. If adopted, this would create areas not unlike tribal reservations. Yet because "disparities" between these areas and other areas would be noted, they would not be allowed to last.

Note also that this analysis does not account for the official government policy of saying "white supremacists" are the nation's greatest threat, or actions of politicians like the mayor of Chicago who refuses to talk to whites, and the other actions which seek to purge non-leftist whites from the political arena.

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