Dreaded Delta Surge Explained (Is it the Vexxine?); Cars Killing More Than COVID; Literal Ministries Of Truth; UK Pingdemic; More! -- Coronavirus Update LXXX

BRACE YOURSELF

How many died of traffic fatalities last week? About 744. On average. Given 38,680 died last year.

How many died of the doom? CDC says 163. But that's an undercount due to government quitting every day at 5. Or before. The real number is probably closer to the traffic fatalities, and maybe, given late counts, a bit higher. We'll see in a few weeks.

Car deaths are preventable---and catchy, too. Guy driving down the road has a heart attack, slaughters a family of five. It happens.

It needed! We could lock down the highways now. Hey, if it saves just one life, right?

Right?

Right?

DREADED DELTA RISES!

So. Not knowing how to react in any other way, our Experts and rulers, with full approval by the easily addled majority, are once again panicking. And insisting all panic with them.

With panic comes overreaction. Such as re-instituting mask mandates and forms of locking down. Now these measures haven't worked at all anywhere they have been tried. But Experts, relying on their theories, say they should work, therefore, they conclude, they do work.

Now the Dreaded Delta has been roaming through the UK for one to two months, according to the hyperventilating headlines. "Case" numbers are bumping up. More on that in a minute. Let's look first and the DD's destructive power:

In days of yore, when scientists remembered about viruses, they knew that bugs like the coronadoom would mutate into less virulent, but possible more catching forms. Like the DD appears to have done.

Those readers who have been here since the beginning know that testing is driving the casedemic. The greater the number of tests, the more marginal, and even false, infections will be turned up. These positive tests everybody, even those who know better, call "cases", to make them sound scarier than the are. Unethical, yes. But useful in juicing panics. (Here's one would-be public servant saying he is testing daily.)

USA testing was down around half a million daily and falling fast the the DD panic struck. It jumped, almost immediately, to 1.5 million daily---a whole million extra! And it's only going up.

Same thing in the UK:

https://twitter.com/MarkAnt72/status/1416557565136314370

Also France, whose ruler insists all carry a paper around with them everywhere at all times and for the rest of their lives saying they have got the coronadoom vexxine. Without it, no man many buy or sell.

Anyway, we're back to the purposeful juicing of data. We now have to suspect whether attributed deaths are dying with or dying of again. This means (as below) we have to look at total all-cause death numbers. If these are more than we'd expect, then there's some concern. If not---and so far there is no evidence---then the panic is a bust.

California, Land of the Woke, made it illegal to go without a mask again indoors. Because of the swelling "case" numbers of the DD.

I loathe those black lines Google puts on the data, because the black lines aren't the data, but it's almost impossible not to think it. Anyway. This is all of California, not just LA.

There is no reason to panic. But panicking they are.

(Naturally, all this has to be done by vexxine manufacturer and other dimensions.)

VEXXINE UPDATE

This is really a continuation of the DD update, but the vexxine numbers become important here.

Here's a thread that's going around, making those who shouldn't be nervous. This is the first picture from that thread.

You can see the "cases" are shooting to the sky, because of at least increased testing. But we also saw deaths aren't following.

Have you noticed the media nowhere reports on deaths anymore?

Imagine tracking ordinary coronaviruses, which cause the common cold, showing their numbers blow out of control as they do twice a year (late fall, mid summer, but less so). We could panic in perpetuity! People assume that deaths must be following all these dangerous surges.

We really are ruled by the effeminate.

Anyway, the supposition of this thread is that the vexxine has something to do with the DD "case" surge.

The whole answer is maybe. But, since deaths aren't being (yet?) over-attributed, the practical is so what?

Look, as I've said before, the purpose and design of vaccines is to cause you injury. They are designed to. The idea is: no pain, no gain. By giving you pain in a smaller way, the hope is to avoid pain in a bigger way.

The doom vexxines cause your body to make harmful spike proteins, to which your body is supposed to say "Whoa there" and make antibodies to handle them. Since the mRNA of the vexxines is, they say, temporary, you won't continue to manufacture your own spike proteins, but, it is hoped, by the time your body is done making them, your body also has figured out how to defeat them.

On the other hand, if you do get a version of the coroandoom, the virus enters your body, and like the mRNA vexxine, it manufactures spike proteins, albeit much more efficiently. Too efficiently for those old and sick. But for almost everybody, their bodies outwit the doom. This is why everybody doesn't have to get the vexxine if they are concerned about death.

The theory is, again, the vexxine is less painful than the doom. Not that is it of no pain or no risk. Which is the government line. For those of borderline health, its a toss up whether they'll have more pain from the vexxine of the doom itself. But also---and this is a forbidden subject---some people will never get the doom, being naturally immune (perhaps having been previously infected by one of innumerable other coroaviruses which cause the common cold).

Now as you are vexxed, your immune system is stressed. At that moment, you are more vulnerable to novel infections. The Dreaded Delta is one of these. So it's possible the newly vexxed are contracting more easily the DD, which after all isn't the same as the other coronadoom variants.

But the deaths aren't really following. It's only infections. Which they unethically call "cases".

The vexxine, some say, still protects against severity of disease. Meaning you could get the DD and not become too sick. They are already announcing those that are still dying are the unvexxed. This is plausible. I like it as an explanation. But. It's also hilarious, because it it means the vexxine isn't preventing infections especially well. Meaning if you get infected while vexxed you could pass on the bug. Meaning the line "Get vexxed so you won't pass on the disease" fails.

Yes, the vexxine could have, in a roundabout way, given rise to the DD. Look at this way. The other variants kill more enthusiastically, meaning the people who get them die at greater rates and, it follows, therefore have less change of passing on the deadlier bugs. This is why ebola doesn't spread like mad. But it also means the less deadly variants can pass more easily, since those bugs aren't killing off their hosts. This is why the common cold coronaviruses spread easily.

It also explains this (one of many such reports), which regular readers will recall Yours Truly predicted.

https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1416078736160661504

You'll recall initial reports of relative vexxine effectiveness were in the high 90s. I said back in December:

As I’ve said before, trial numbers in medical experiments always look better than real-life numbers, and I’d bet good money these numbers will shrink. I have no idea by how much. I’d be (pleasantly) surprised if in real life it was much north of 50%.

Ahem.

Also re-read: "Absolute Vs. Relative Risk Reduction" if you don't recall the difference.

The vexxines aren't as efficient at stopping the (it seems) far less deadly variants.

None of this will be any surprise to regular readers.

MINISTRY OF TRUTH

Normally when we see "Ministry of Truth" we expect it to be a joke at the expensive of some government official who can't believe the public won't accept his lies.

But in this case we have the ruler of New Zealand---whose only real skill is looking mournfully at the camera while she condemns great swaths of her subjects---telling us that, yes, indeed, New Zealand has an actual Ministry of Truth. As befits such an august agency, the ruler says the MOT is the "single source of truth" (my emphasis) for citizens.

Whoever it is that is behind Biden is jealous. They had Biden say the other day that folks like you, dear readers, who post analyses (such as mine) using the government's own data, analyses that questions the government's hersterical narrative, are "killing people".

The regime behind Biden is therefore demanding social media censors expunge from all platform those who question the government.

As I've long said, those governments like New Zealand and ours who have created MOTs have hit upon a brilliant, cost-effective way to do science. Announce what is true and cannot be denied. It becomes vastly simpler to do research when you know the answer.

Easy research doesn't mean it's easy to gain notoriety, and therefore grants and promotions, as a scientist. Any dumb sap can submit a paper that repeats the Ministry line. If you want to get ahead, you need to praise the Ministry with sweeter words, you need to find a way to go farther, but in the same direction, as the Ministry wants to go, by promising the fears of the Ministry are worse than they realize.

Ask yourself if this is not how it works for those areas of science that have caught regimes' eyes.

https://twitter.com/lporiginalg/status/1416283850171248654

EXPERT UPDATE

Item: Not all experts are created equal -- and that’s a problem in the fight against COVID.

Since the pandemic struck in early 2020, a small class of experts have become modern-day rock stars. The medical-industrial complex has quickly become the perfect foil to the under-resourced mainstream media, adding easy credibility to the constant stream of COVID-19 clickbait. The only problem with these ready-to-cook experts is that, as with all professions, not all experts are created equal. ..

The granddaddy of COVID experts hasn’t actually practised as a health professional for almost four decades. Norman Swan, the [Australia's] ABC’s health guru, has been a radio producer (and briefly a Biggest Loser star) for most of his career. Swan, who has accumulated 118,000 Twitter followers and 2.6 million podcast listeners, is usually entertaining but not always accurate. Most famously, in March 2020 he warned Australia would soon record 80,000 daily infections, “14-20 days behind Italy” (Australia’s record was during Melbourne’s second wave when we hit 721). Swan was also accused of undermining the vaccination program in Australia when he suggested “we’d learn a lot by waiting” to roll out the Pfizer vaccine.

As I like to say, you can never be fired for being wrong in the right direction. Experts have been telling governments and oligarchs and the love-to-be-frightened what they want to hear, so it does not matter if they are wrong. Excuses are needed for the monumentally harmful decisions made, and the Experts give these.

Meanwhile, those who make correct predictions, but in areas which say the official decisions were wrong, are canceled or ignored. Proving the opposite of our dictum is true, too: you can always be fired for being right in the wrong direction. Wisdom as old as mankind.

ENGLAND SCORES REPEATED OWN GOALS

It's nice to see people screw themselves over because of the hersterical rules and restrictions they have insisted on. This story is hilarious.

In the UK, if you get too close to a person who's self-funded listening and tracking device (SFLTD) says they have cooties, your own SFLTD will "ping" and say you might now have cooties. You then must, under penalty of shame and threat of public exposure, run to the time out corner and "self isolate".

Here's one of my favorite headlines (hat tip Wrath of Gnon): "Metropolitan Tube line is SUSPENDED and Piccadilly and District lines are partially closed due to shortage of control room staff after they were 'pinged' by NHS Covid app."

It comes as industry bosses are warning that Britain faces food shortages with shops being closed early and bins not emptied for ten weeks if urgent action is not taken to address the so-called 'pingdemic'.

Richard Jones, London Underground's head of network operations, said: 'Due to a shortage of control room staff who are having to self-isolate following notification this morning via the Test and Trace app, there will be no service on the Metropolitan line for the rest of the day.

From another story: "Food shortages, shops forced to close early, bins not emptied for 10 WEEKS and a £4bn hit to the economy". They say, "A fifth of all private sector workers are currently having to self-isolate, according to industrial analysis."

I lost another similar link which said the pings could go through walls, and the people in adjoining apartments were getting pinged.

Well, since self-isolation not quite mandated, a few people will venture into freedom after pinged. They will ping others. Most of those will run and hide, but some won't. (What's your guess on whether government and hourly workers will insist they have to hide?) These newly pinged will go on to ping others.

And so on. We now see the pings spread far, far better than the Dreaded Delta. Soon, all of the UK will be "pinged."

I can't think of a more fitting way to end this needless panic than by this layering on of a wholly voluntary crippling frenzy. The idiocy of England's Experts is almost boundless (this had to be an Expert's idea). It's people aren't too bright, either, I'm afraid. It seems nobody has hit on the idea of not carrying SFLTDs.

Amazing.

BOOK

The Price of Panic.

Website of similar name: price of panic.

THE NUMBERS

Sources: CDC State data (source), CDC official toll number one, number two (the old weekly file, now suspect). Causes of death (source). Deaths by age. Covid & flu. WHO flu tracker. All current as of Monday night.

Daily tests (from here from Johns Hopkins) have spiked. The Dreaded Delta panic is working.

This is my GIMPing of the graph, trying to change their anemic almost-not-there tan to something readable. Go and see the original. Testing has shot up over a million a day to 1.5 million a day.

Thanks to Experts and the media.

And with testing comes "cases", i.e. positive tests. But not, in this case, deaths.

CDC deaths "involving" COVID.

Delta variant! Delta variant! Delta variant! Delta variant! The Delta variant rises! But, apparently, does not kill.

The week-of-the-year all-cause deaths.

Green line is 2021, red is 2020. The dotted line are all cause deaths minus COVID. That means the 2020 deaths that look out of place (above the mass of other lines but below the dotted line) are likely deaths caused by the panic.

The drop off at the end is late reporting. Those three black dots indicate the last three weeks. Three weeks from now, about 80% or so of all the deaths will have been counted. It can take, the CDC says, up to eight weeks to get a full count.

See the dotted green line? That's All Cause MINUS the COVID. Those numbers are way below where we'd expect them.

There is no reason for the Dreaded Delta Panic.

Here's more proof the crisis is over:

Strange, isn't it, that heart disease and cancer are on the decrease, even as the doom vanishes?

And those unclassified deaths are curious, too: they're about the same number of the doom The codes indicate those times when the doctors aren't quite sure why the person died. For instance, "Ill-defined and unknown cause of mortality".

Notice the rise of these unclassifieds. Could they be related to the vexxines? The rise is certainly co-incident with rise in vexxines. This is a forbidden question on social media, so don't ask it, or they will ban you. That's how The Science works, by limiting uncomfortable questions.

Here's the standard state comparison:

Does your state still have restrictions, like Michigan, which had 211 deaths per 100,000? Or is your state free, like Florida, with its much older and sicker population had 179 deaths per 100,000?

See that tiny wee uptick in Texas for the last week? That's the Dreaded Delta? See it in Florida, too? No, sir, you don't.

Flu is still missing. We haven't done the plot in a while. Now there are always flu deaths, even in summer. Not this year. Not anywhere.

We also haven't looked at the totals by age in a while. Here they are:

Update This is a cumulative chart since the beginning of the panic, from 2020-2021. It is mislabeled. I'll fix in the next update.

See any reason to panic for the young? You do? Where?

Another shot (the CDC's ordering is screwy):

Way it reads is 8 people 44 and under died of the doom last week. 8.

About masks in more depth, see this article and this one and especially this one. Leave the Cult of the Mask.

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