On Excess Deaths & Covid: Could Vaccines Be Upping Totals? -- Coronavirus Update CIII

This week I thought it would be fun to focus on Expert over-certainty, hubris, and absurdity. And, of course, theirs and rulers' bloodthirstyness. But before all that, a serious analysis of "excess" deaths and vaccines.

The gist is this: CDC says 96.3% of 65+ year olds have had at least one dose. Yet the most vaccinated are still dying the most from covid.

The youngest, without vaccination, are dying the least (or scarcely at all).

"EXCESS" DEATHS

The scare quotes are a necessity. There are no such things as "excess" deaths except with reference to a counterfactual model. Ever. We may say "This is how many deaths we would have seen if there was no coronadoom or vaccines", but the numbers are conditional on a state which does not exist. So they can never be verified.

So a model representing this non-state (no coronadoom/no vaccine) is a logical necessity. And all models, good and bad, only say what they are told to say.

With those caveats, here are the monthly all-cause deaths by age group since January 2020 (the CDC doesn't publish these as one source before that date: source):

We'll be careful, so pardon my pedantry. This is for the whole USA. Drop offs at end are due to late counting; after two months, most counts are in.

The most obvious feature is that old people die in larger numbers than young. No one can be surprised by this. It changes only for the youngest, those under 1 year. This is also not surprising. Making it through year zero dramatically improves survival.

Focus on 85 years or older only, the group with the largest deaths. We see what we take to be the first coronadoom wave in April-May 2020, the second wave (in the southern/western USA) in summer 2020, the 2021 winter peak, and the Dreaded Delta blip in summer 2021. We don't yet assign causes with any certainty.

The DD is only a blip, too, compared to the previous waves. Notice another thing: seemingly superimposed on the peaks are a general downward trend. These all must have a cause, or causes.

One might be that the first waves of the coronadoom killed off the most vulnerable, people who would have died, say, in the next year, but died now (as it were), right after the man-made bug was released or escaped. Monthly deaths in the summer 2020 were about 10 thousand higher than in summer 2021, when the doom was not peaking.

Why is the DD only a blip? Perhaps, in part, vaccines. CDC says 96.3% of 65+ year olds have had at least one dose.

A plausible story, for the oldest, is that the winter of 2019 was mild, with few flu deaths, and then in spring 2020 the doom hit (thanks for the funding, Dr Fauci!). The oldest succumbed most easily. Winter came, and people, as they always do, died off in larger numbers, from the doom and all other diseases.

Vaccines were introduced (in large numbers) in the early spring of 2021, and the oldest got them first. Deaths from the doom, in a relative sense, began to drop, until the Dreaded Delta came along. It was easier to spread, but less deadly, in part because of its intrinsic characteristics, or in part because of vaccines.

Or, in part, because the most vulnerable were already dead by the time of DD.

How much credit we give each cause we can't do, not without making some sort of model, which means making assumptions.

Our plausible story, though, is a combination horror story---Expert hubris at playing Prometheus---and success story---Experts creating vaccines to cure the bug they created.

Let's see if this story holds for other groups. Focus on 75-84 year olds. Similar, but not quite the same story. Summer 2021 deaths are a tad lower than than summer 2020. Not as many vulnerable to die is one possibility. The doom peaks in the same spots. This group is just as vaccinated.

Now 65-74. Same thing, except now deaths in both summers are about the same. Also, the DD-timing is just about as bad as the spring 2020 peak. This group is slightly less vaccinated than the others. We can't say it's the DD itself, and its characteristics, being the full cause, because we don't know whether it's deadlier for this group, or whether something new, like the vaccines and weakened immune systems (because of the vaccine), interacting with the DD.

Now 55-64. The doom signal starts to attenuate in a large way. This age group just isn't dying at the same rates as the older. The DD peak now is larger than the initial spring 2020 peak. People are even less vaccinated here, but still the rates are higher compared to those even younger.

Funny the DD peak is so high, though. The peak wasn't for the oldest, where if we believe the vaccine did all the shrinking, it should do the same for all ages, like all Experts claim. The only other plausible candidate is the vaccine+doom interaction, meaning Experts are in error.

We're in danger of missing things because of disparities in age signals. Let's focus in on younger groups:

Again focus on the oldest, 45-54. A remarkable change! The doom was never bad for this group until winter 2021, and then again in the Dreaded Delta---which here matched the intensity of the winter. Amazing. Starting in the summer 2021, it was this group that was most aggressively targeted for vaccination. Firings began for those who did not believe Experts.

The spring-summer 2020 was normal, as was the winter 2021, in the sense that deaths are what we'd expect. But the DD-timing surge is curious. The alpha variant was the one responsible for the winter 2021 peak, and that is supposed to be more virulent. How is it that the DD alone is causing a higher peak?

Recall these are all-cause deaths. So here it's even more plausible something else introduced to the system, in concert with the bug, is causing the surge in deaths. It could be vaccines, it could be something else. But you can't dismiss vaccines.

After all, side effects in the young are more common than in the old.

Okay, now 35-44. Suddenly, the DD-timing peak is higher. This group, too, was also targeted strongly for vaccination. Propaganda wasn't in it. You can see that the previous peaks were never huge, relatively speaking, so there should have been less impetus to vaccinated, and more caution. Only those with strong comorbidities, say, should have been jabbed. Not everybody en masse.

Notice, too, the summer 2021 deaths were higher than the summer 2020 deaths, periods in which the bug wasn't surging---but the vaccines were.

The story for 25-34 year olds is similar, but with more vaccine "hesitancy". There was little evidence the bug itself was wreaking any kind of havoc. Vaccines were still pushed as "the" solution, though.

Let's zoom in again on the youngest groups:

The 15-24 year olds don't have any discernible doom signal in the all-cause deaths. The strange dip here (and for the next younger) is probably a count-timing signal (these are monthly aggregations). There is no reason for vaccinating this group, shown from this data. But neither have this group been vaccinated in large numbers, so there is no other increase in deaths.

The same is true for the youngest groups. No peaks, at all, in all-cause deaths. Vaccines for kids are not warranted. The Under 1 year group deaths have even decreased. Why, I don't know. Perhaps increased vigilance.

This is long, but let's now do the attributed doom deaths, and see if they match our story. Here's the attributed covid deaths by age:

Again, the oldest died, they said, in greater numbers than the younger.

The 85+ group died in largest numbers, until the DD, where they were overtaken by the 65-74 and 75-84 year olds, backing up our surmise that by the summer 2021 the most vulnerable eldest were already dead from the gain-of-lethality experiment.

One again, the 55-64 years olds had peaks with the DD as they did in winter 2021 with the Awesome Alpha. This, again, is damned curious because this group had large vaccination rates. Why wasn't it working against the DD? Or was the vaccine weakening the immune system, and when the DD hit the vaccinated, they succumbed more easily?

That would only make sense if the vaccine does not well represent the bug itself. Which it doesn't. It only makes your body make the spike protein, ignoring all other aspects of the bug. Some are saying because of this, immune systems, tuned only to the spike, craps out when confronted by the bug itself. This data is consistent with that story.

Let's focus in again:

Look at 45-54 year olds. Curious, no? Perhaps a bit of an increase overlaid by surges, with the DD being the largest of all, by far. This curve does not mimic the all-cause curve, indicating something else is in the system.

The same story holds for 25-34 and and 35-44 year olds.

More focus:

Dude. Remind yourself of the all-cause 15-24 deaths. There was no DD-timing peak, nor even any doom peaks; there was even a slight decrease of all-cause at the end.

Yet here is a whopping increase in attributed doom deaths. If this is real, then this age group suddenly got very healthy in every other sense, to make up for the doom deaths. Or it isn't real, and these doom deaths are over-attributed. Or caused by the vaccine---in a group not yet blanket vaccinated.

Again, remind yourself of the all-caused deaths for everybody younger than 15. A general decrease, or holding steady. No signal of any kind.

Yet here, in the attributed doom deaths, a slight uptick at the end. Coinciding with the DD---and an increase in health in every other way---or the vaccine making inroads to this group.

Well, there you are. There are "excess" deaths in those north of 24, but none in those as young or younger. In the sense that we'd expect only to see the usual winter peak in all-cause deaths.

Something is causing the strange signals. The bug is obviously killing people, thanks to Science. The deaths due to covid are surely, in part, over-attributed in the young. And there is some evidence the vaccine in the young hurts rather than helps, as it seems to in the very old.

Anything more has to wait for more data. If the vaccine is harmful in the younger, then as they mandate it, we should see the all-cause deaths tick up.

We wouldn't have to do any of this if our Experts kept better track of causes of death and side effects of vaccines. Recording them isn't even a thing in medicine. No one is quite sure why.

Or why don't they track covid deaths by those with and without vaccines? How else can we track this?

Hey, it's Science.

IT'S A MYSTERY

EXPERT MEMORY

4 January 2021: One jab, 100%.

https://twitter.com/thismorning/status/1346038472566571008

22 July 2021: Two doses, 85%-90%

Two AstraZeneca shots could be 85-90% effective, UK data suggests

22 October 2021: Three jabs, almost 100%.

https://twitter.com/TheSun/status/1451439594940084230"

22 October 2021: Four jabs, almost 100%

https://twitter.com/thecoastguy/status/1451593730704748544

https://twitter.com/TheInvisibleHnd/status/1450683005345755141

HUNT DOWN THE UNVAXXED

Break into their homes and forcibly vax them:

https://twitter.com/Kukicat7/status/1451615821248319491

Isolate the starve them to death, to "protect" the agency in charge of their health.

https://twitter.com/LozzaFox/status/1451818329723781123

Isolate the starve them to death, to "protect", well, nobody.

https://twitter.com/gluboco/status/1451714806721957891

As any Expert how long you will have to carry a "freedom" pass. One week? A month? A year? Two? Ten? Forever?

Watch them suddenly change the subject.

TRUST THE CDC!

https://twitter.com/CDCgov/status/1450162519365070861

The CDC, here implying a woman can impregnate another woman, also asks you to trust them on vaccines and Covid "solutions."

THERE ARE NO SIDE EFFECTS IF YOU DON'T COUNT THEM

The noble lie is, indeed, official policy:

On the other hand:

https://twitter.com/Dr_ScottMc/status/1450747846970548226

DANCE LIKE YOU'RE "FULLY" VACCINATED

https://twitter.com/BB__USA/status/1450792524210216963

NOW HOW DID THIS ONE GET HERE

Trust doctors.

https://twitter.com/queersurgeon/status/1402336518572634117

NUMBERS

We've had enough numbers this week. Except for these two.

"Cases" (which are fake & gay, but which drive the panic):

And flu, which the media tried to panic us about, but which is still gone. For now.

There are also indications, as we long predicted, of doom deaths creeping up in the growing-cold-people-going-inside north.

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