Vaccine Efficacy, Vaccine Tyranny & Lockdown Lawlessness: Coronavirus Update LV
VACCINE EFFICACY
Long-time reader Steve Fettig asked me to look into the Reason [sic] article (by Bailey) "Vaccines Are 100% Effective at Preventing COVID-19 Hospitalizations and Deaths", which is based on a Lancet note "What does 95% COVID-19 vaccine efficacy really mean?" (by Olliaro).
Bailey's article is a mess of confusions, but then Olliaro's is not much better. The worst error of Bailey is not to mention any negatives about the vaccines, such as side effects. He anyway says"
As LiveScience reports, the Pfizer/BioNTech, Moderna, and Johnson & Johnson clinical trials all found that their vaccines were essentially 100 percent effective in preventing severe disease six to seven weeks after trial participants had received a first/single dose.
As Fettig rightly said in an email to me, "Nothing has 100% efficacy."
Like I said, the quoted trial rates of efficacy will almost certainly be lower in actual populations, and the quoted adverse reaction rates will almost certainly be higher. I base that on decades experience evaluating data like this. Trials are heavily controlled, real people aren't. But our beneficent government is working in that direction.
Let's look at Olliaro's number. Vaccine efficacy is claimed at 95%. Problem working with numbers like efficacy is you lose perspective. We saw earlier in the Pfizer data that 0.05% got the doom in the vaccine group and 0.9% got in the placebo group. These are more concrete.
They are also the rates only for the people vaccinated and in the study. They will not apply equally to those outside the study, because the people outside it will not look causally the same as those in it. Increasing vaccination, and changing weather, will modify the rates.
Accepting those numbers, assuming Olliaro's vaccinated population of 100,000, then about 50 people in that group would get the doom if---and here's the part he leaves off---these 50 can find somebody to get the doom from.
We see elsewhere that most who get the doom "are contagious for 4--8 days. Specimens are generally not found to contain culture-positive (potentially contagious) virus beyond day 9 after the onset of symptoms, with most transmission occurring before day 5."
If you get the vaccine, and it works, and I don't get it, then I can't get the bug from you, since you can't be infected. I have to find somebody else in the four or five days they are infectious. That's why, in those not vaccinated, the rate is only 0.9%. That, and because the bug isn't so easy to pass on.
Because in real life, different people in different areas will get vaccinated with difference vaccines, all of which will have variable rates of protection, it will be difficult to guess just how it will all play out. It's clear, though, that if the rate of infection is really only 0.05%, then herd immunity will happen fast as more people are vaccinated.
However, this assumes the vaccine will be a one-and-done, like with measles. And not like the flu. We track 8 variants of the flu, all without panicking. One new coroandoom variant is found, and people retreat back in their shell of fear. When all it means is the efficacy rate will drop to more expected (to me, anyway) numbers.
The coronadoom will always be with us, just like many other bugs. Perpetual panic to this is insane.
VACCINE TYRANNY
Object to the word insane?
https://twitter.com/thehoffather/status/1364707538990632961
We haven't even started. The zero-tolerance policy, and worst-case policy assumptions, are far worse than insane. They are evil.
‘Everyone Agreed’ on Vaccine Passports, Says Merkel at EU Coronavirus Summit
German Chancellor Angela Merkel claimed that there is a unanimous agreement within the European Union on implementing a coronavirus vaccine passport, during a virtual meeting of EU member states on Thursday.
The German leader said that “everyone agreed that we need a digital vaccination certificate,” following the meeting of European leaders.
Merkel said that such a system could be implemented as soon as the summer, but claimed that the introduction of a vaccine passport “does not mean that only those who have a vaccination passport are allowed to travel,” according to the German broadcaster DW.
Yeah, sure it doesn't, lady. We believe you.
If we allow this, and I can't see how we can fight it, so if it happens, we have launched ourselves on yet another slippery slope.
https://twitter.com/thehoffather/status/1364707538990632961
NO SHAME
https://twitter.com/i/bookmarks
The WEF just as evil as you thought:
https://twitter.com/wef/status/1365346325236170761
LAWLESSNESS
Recommended over at The American Sun, this must-read (or must-listen) post on the lawlessness we now live under, with many coronadoom examples. On the Brawndo Tyranny by Charles Haywood.
The Mask Order On January 29, 2021, the CDC issued an order requiring universal wearing of masks in every public conveyance in the United States. I will spend less time on this Mask Order, because in the substance of its violations of the rule of law, it is very similar. It contains an extra item of note, however.
Unlike the Eviction Order, the Mask Order spends quite a bit of time trying to justify itself. Because masks are pseudo-science, modern talismans, it does this by lying, both directly and by omission. As with everything else that “experts say,” nearly nothing that “experts” say, about this or anything else, today can be trusted, because they say what is politically desirable for their masters first, perhaps later followed by consideration of the far subordinate question of what is true. (Anthony Fauci’s every utterance is one prominent example of this; another is how were told the Floyd Riots were to be permitted, but no other public or private gatherings. But there are thousands of examples.) This shouldn’t be a surprise; as Trofim Lysenko could have testified, corruption of science is a hallmark of all modern tyrannies.
GOOD NEWS
Watch this video by South Dakota governor Kristi Noem. "We have to show people how arbitrary these restrictions are..."
Item: Florida got it right, and the lockdown states got it wrong.
“Welcome to the oasis of freedom!” Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis declared at the opening of his speech at the Conservative Political Action Conference on Friday. “Florida got it right, and the lockdown states got it wrong!”
Meanwhile, nowhere do lockdowns work, the only evidence for them being models, which only say what they're told to say. Observations show lockdowns do massive harm. Yet they continue to be tried. Finland is next.
Given the paucity of empirical support for them, and the definite known harms, it has to be something else driving beneficent governments to use them. I say it's the effeminate fear of unlikely death combined with a desire for control.
Prove that wrong.
BOOK
Nice endorsement from the Babylon Bee's chief.
https://twitter.com/SethDillon/status/1364005828274061312
Website of similar name: price of panic.
THE NUMBERS
Sources: daily tests, CDC official toll number one, number two (the old weekly file, now suspect). Deaths by age. Covid & flu. WHO flu tracker. All current as of Monday night.
Daily tests:
Bad news is tests rose a bit, which accounts for the "worrisome" "uptick" in "cases" our bureaucrats discuss in the media. It's all driven by testing, as this whole panic has been since after it got going. This is proved below when we see attributed deaths dropping.
Every positive test the media falsely calls a "case", when it is only an infection with varying degrees of seriousness---and most are not serious. The media really does not know how to tell the truth.
Positivity rate of the tests. You'll recall four weeks ago we discussed how the WHO told people to lower the PCR Ct rates, which should produce fewer positives---and fewer false positives.
Notice carefully that this is not dropping because tests are dropping. If anything, and all things equal, fewer tests mean larger positivities, because it's more likely only the sickest are being tested.
This flattened a bit since last week, and for the same reason.
CDC weekly ALL CAUSE death counts, or the Perspective Plot, from late 2009 until now. The late drop off is late counting: it takes up to eight weeks to get all data. We need to look at all cause deaths because we can't quite trust the attributed COVID numbers.
The black line is deaths of any kind. The red is COVID. The blue line is flu+pneumonia (it's the pneumonia that kills most flu patients). The blue is estimated starting mid year 2020 because CDC stopped separate reporting on flu. The suspicion is some flu and pneumonia deaths are being attributed to COVID.
DEATHS ALWAYS PEAK IN MID JANUARY, THEN DROP. EVEN WITHOUT GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION. PLEASE PASS THIS INFORMATION ON!
The numbers are dropping like blonde jokes in women's studies course. This indicates, if it holds, the culling effect seen in every pandemic. The weak are killed off, leaving the strong. (This violates two theories, Be Nice and Equality, yet it is still so.)
Here is the CDC deaths "involving" COVID.
Again, even with late counting it's clear attributed deaths are on their way down---as non-experts have been predicting.
Here is another way to look at all deaths, the week-of-the-year all-cause deaths. A big change this week!
The 2020 estimated "excess" deaths (using my extrapolation model) are closing in. About 487 thousand. This will rise a tiny bit with late counts. Rose 5,000 since last week. Won't go too much higher, as late counts are catching up fast.
MOST IMPORTANT: these are not all COVID deaths! They include deaths from the "solution" to COVID, too. Plus increased suicides, septicemia and other iatrogenic kills, cancers, heart attacks, and everything else due to lockdowns. Like car crashes, as we saw above. Plus, there were over 80,000 drug overdose deaths last year. This point cannot be over-emphasized.
The green line at the left are 2021 numbers; obvious under-counts for the last three weeks. ON the other hand, weekly deaths really look to have dropped quite dramatically. And how!
I repeat: the green line will increase at the end, but not by such huge numbers. Leading one to suspect that that flu and other diseases are still be classed as deaths "involving" (CDC's word) coronadoom.
Flu is still missing. Here is the WHO's global flu tracker, which still shows flu has gone missing everywhere:
Flu is still gone the whole world over.
Here is the CDC official population mortality rates for the all causes other than COVID, and "involving" COVID (with and of; "involving" is CDC's word).
POPULATION FATALITY RATES
Age COVID OtherCause
1 Under 1 year 0.00001200 0.005300
2 1–4 years 0.00001300 0.002200
3 5–14 years 0.00000059 0.000089
4 15–24 years 0.00000180 0.000140
5 25–34 years 0.00001500 0.000820
6 35–44 years 0.00019000 0.002500
7 45–54 years 0.00054000 0.004600
8 55–64 years 0.00130000 0.010000
9 65–74 years 0.00330000 0.020000
10 75–84 years 0.00840000 0.049000
11 85 years and over 0.02300000 0.150000
I say this every week, too: No matter what age, there is at least about a 10 times or larger chance of dying from something else then COVID. If you're under 44, the COVID risk is tiny. Our level of fear is in not in line with the actual risk for the majority of the population.
About masks in depth, see this article and this one. I am also working on a comprehensive article about masks. Hint: they do not work.
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