10 Comments
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Robert Arvanitis's avatar

Not wrong, but incomplete.

Bayes is a philosophical principle: “Correlation ain’t causation, but that’s the way to bet.”

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TheAbjectLesson's avatar

"...unless you know something else that bears upon it; then include that, too."

;-)

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Gilgamech's avatar

This is a non sequitur in the contexts of calculating probability and of Bayes. Neither make causal claims.

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William M Briggs's avatar

Bayes does not. Bayesians do. Boy, howdy, do they ever.

And correlations these days in science is not the way to bet. Bet on correlation, not causation.

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Robert Arvanitis's avatar

Ungenerous comment.

It addresses the purpose for the original post.

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Gilgamech's avatar

Ok yes that’s fair. Sorry.

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Robert Arvanitis's avatar

All good.

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PE Bird's avatar

"mathematical urges". Such as the desire to multiply?

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Paul Fischer's avatar

C'mon William, Bayes was all about betting.

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Gilgamech's avatar

LaTex?! My man!!

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